Predict Wise gives Bernie Sanders an 18% of chance of winning the Democratic Nomination.
Without studying the model, I think that is a grave underestimate.
I would give Bernie Sanders an intuitive Bayesian Prior of 65% of winning the Democratic Nomination right now.
Whether I move that number up or down depends on the unfolding skillful means of his campaign team.
Bernie Sanders has struck an incredibly powerful chord. A movement is brewing that will accrue exponential momentum that these models aren’t forecasting.
I think my facebook feed is a powerful early adopter signal and it is overwhelmingly pro-Bernie. And Bernie will Successfully Cross Geoffrey Moore’s Chasm.
Here are 5 big presumptive flaws in the current prediction model that puts Bernie at 18%, but will eventually tip the scales in his favor:
1. The Apathetic, Disenfranchised Millennial
Most pollsters expect this demographic to not come out to vote because they haven’t come out in the past. But they haven’t come out in the past because they believe the system is fundamentally broken. And the system is fundamentally broken, but now there’s finally a candidate who represents the viewpoint that system is fundamentally broken. So Bernie Sanders is activating a huge well of energy that was considered off the map. I see him tapping into the same energy of Hope and Change that Obama tapped into but was unable to fully deliver on, in part because he was too much of diplomat and not enough of a fighter. Bernie actually has the character disposition, track record and values to pick up where Obama left off.
He is tapping into an authentic moral developmental sequence of the universe. For those who know Integral Spiral Dynamics, he is the first full spectrum Green candidate, unlike Obama and Hillary who are Orange/Green. [Orange and Green roughly stand for Modernism and Post-Modernism] .
2. The Socialized Mind
There have been a plethora of tropes about Bernie Sanders not being capable of winning. Now that results have come in Iowa, he undeniably has to be taken seriously. He will likely win New Hampshire because it’s near his home state and then he will have a ton of momentum.
The Majority of American voters are in the psychological stage of development that Harvard Developmental Psychologists Robert Kegan would call the Socialized Mind. Essentially this means people primarily make decisions based on what their social circle is doing rather than really critically thinking for themselves.
When a population is made up primarily of people who are Socialized Minds, that population is incredibly susceptible to momentum.
3. The Socialized Mind Momentum Swing will Trigger a Bernie Sanders Fundraising Tidal Swell
We already saw the legitimizing effect the Iowa Caucus had on Sanders’ fundraising efforts yesterday: he raised 3 Million dollars in one day — his biggest day ever.http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/267999-sanders-raised-3m-in-24-hours-his-biggest-single-day-yet
I expect his fundraising success to continue to in a positive feedback loop:
Appears more credible -> Raises more money -> Runs a more effective campaign -> Gets Results -> Appears more credible
4. Mainstream Media Indicators vs. Social Media indicators
The mainstream media has ignored Bernie. Yet Bernie has succeeded anyway. Mainstream media influences linearly and static-ly. The models and pundits underestimate the viral, interactive nature of social media.
5. Winning the Black Vote
The models say he struggles with this demographic. But that’s probably because he looks like a white grumpy grandpa who is easily dismissed on first impression. And Clinton has long time name recognition with Southern born Bill Clinton serving them well.
All the aforementioned factors will force Bernie to be seriously considered rather than dismissed on first impression.
Black leaders like Cornell West saying Bernie Sanders stands on the legacy of Martin Luther King will tip the scales in his favor.
I must admit — 3 years ago I posted I thought Hillary Clinton had probably better than 80% chance of being the next President of the United States.(https://www.facebook.com/maxhmarmer/posts/4410505574849)
I did not see Bernie coming.
But I’m very glad The Bern has arrived.