How many of them silently live in the communities and social events we co-mingle with?
As many people who I have intuitively sensed there was something ‘off’ with them, have been outted as Alleged Depraved Abusers, I’m wondering how reliable the intuitive impression of something being off about somebody is a predictor of Depravity?
By my back of the napkin calculations, it seems like it very likely is a very good predictor.
Take a look at the statistics:
Domestic Abuse: 1 in 3 women and 1 in 4 men have been victims of [some form of] physical violence by an intimate partner within their lifetime.
Sexual Assault: One in four women and one in six men will be sexually assaulted in their lifetime.
Pedophilia: Self-report studies show that 20% of adult females and 5-10% of adult males recall a childhood sexual assault or sexual abuse incident;
Incest: an overwhelming incidence of sexual abuse happens within the family. These statistics are well known among industry professionals, who are often quick to add, “and this is a notoriously underreported crime.”
So unless all of these crimes are highly clustered amongst a very small subset of people, rather than these types of crimes being more individual distributed
i.e. is it more likely there a few people who commit domestic abuse, sexual abuse, pedophilia and incest, or is more likely there some people who commit domestic abuse and others sexual abuse but not both?
I would lean to the crimes being more evenly distributed.
And if that’s the case then I roughly estimate 15-25% of the population commits these Depravities.
And I would wager that the intuitive sense of something being ‘off’ about someone is picking up on connection to these Depravities… either as a Depraved Perpetrator or a Depraved Victim, or more likely both — as abusers were usually at one point in their life the abused. As abuse is a notoriously hard behavioral, physiological and karmic cycle to break.
What are your thoughts on this?
Does this rough bayesian inference estimation method of Off-ness correlating to Depravity make sense? Can anyone better at Bayesian math tan me put some more rigorous bayesian math behind this?