Highlights from the interview I watched this morning with two of the world’s best macro-economic and finance minds working today: Keith McCollough of Hedgeye and Jim Rickards.

1. There will be no rate hike in December contrary to consensus.
2. Disinflation will continue. The natural state of the world is deflation.
3. Stocks will continue to go up through the end of the year. The next 3 months are smooth sailing from the perspective of systemic financial risk.
4. 2018 presents a lot of risks geopolitically, and EPS profit slowdown YoY.
5. A War with North Korea is extremely likely. Either we’re going to attack NK preemptively in the next 6 months depending on their second strike Nuclear capabilities, or NK is going to invade South Korea within the next 18 months as a re-animation of the Korean War and NK’s desire for Korean Unification. The allies of the South Korea, which includes the US will then have to step in.
6. Bitcoin is in a bubble. Most of the non-speculative transactions taking place are black market: money laundering, arms dealing, drug dealing. “It’s a Ponzi scheme with nobody in charge.” You can make money in a Bubble you just have to get out in time. The Bitcoin Bulls understand technology but they don’t understand the history of markets and currency. Will you make money during the bubble or be like the masses of retail clients left holding the bag in the Dot Com Crash? (Disclosure — I’ve made significant returns speculating on Bitcoin but I plan to sell when particular catalysts are closer on the horizon).
7. China will experience a major economic slowdown in 2018/2019. They were in a holding pattern until Xi Jinping consolidated power, which just occurred. A China slowdown will have far reaching negative effects on the global economy.

My question for my friends:

Do you understand what’s coming? Are you prepared? Financially, Physically, Emotionally, Mentally, Spiritually?


Bitcoin is the most crowded trade in the world right now according to large fund managers.

That means should sentiment change or risks/headwinds increase there could be a lack of liquidity as people head for the exits and a precipitous price drop.

Matters are made worse by the lack of an options market and the ability to hedge.

For what it’s worth, I think the way many people in my network are thinking about investing in cryptocurrency is flawed and dangerous.

Investing in cryptocurrency is part alternative asset class, part angel investing in emerging early stage technology.

I’m particularly concerned for people who don’t understand the concepts and principles of Asset Allocation and Diversification.

And I’m concerned for people who are invested in cryptocurrency but have no investable assets in the stock market.

I think cryptocurrencies should make anywhere from 1-10% of a portfolio. Potentially 25% if you’re hyper bullish and an active trader.

And if you have FOMO that you missed out on huge returns like Ethereum’s 2178% YTD return according to coinbase, know that:

a) past performance is not predictive of future performance
b) spike ups in price are often followed by long consolidation periods before the next leg up
c) It’s possible to get 20x returns with other investment vehicles as options in the stock market. A long term option (LEAP) far out of the money, on NVDIA purchased in early 2016 has over a 21,000% return, 10x Ethereum this year.

Transparency on my personal approach:

Personally, I am very long blockchain technology but not sure about which technology will ultimately win, thus active trading and agility matters.

‘Buy and hold’ is increasingly deadbeat advice in a world of accelerating change.

I currently have about 7.5% of investable assets in Bitcoin, Ethereum and a small basket of speculative cryptos on Poloneix.

I’ve studied tech trends and macro economics for a decade. About 2 years ago I committed to understanding how to translate this knowledge to financial markets by understanding fundamental and technical analysis across various cycle times and in April I started trading a dynamic long/short options portfolio and I have outperformed the nasdaq by nearly 3x over that time, admittedly by taking a lot of risk with very high beta.


What if we created the equivalent of a Special Economic Zone for White Nationalists and called it a Special Cultural Zone (SCZ).

The deal is they can have Mississippi and a few other Deep South States to enact and preserve the White Nationalist Culture they want.

In exchange, White Nationalism is not tolerated anywhere else.

There are no White Nationalist rallies allowed in the rest of America. Confederate statues can be taken down. Swastikas are considered prohibited hate speech…etc.

Those who want to engage in White Nationalist culture can go to their designated “Safe Space”.

Federal laws still apply. There is no descent back into slavery and murderous vigilantism.

There is a year long transition period where those who don’t want to be a part of that culture can move out.

Thoughts? Could this work? Why or Why Not?

Update: My proposal is not without historical and academic precedent. A friend shared with me this paper in the comments on the arguments for and against Partitioning, with many historical case studies.


Based on the article I am advocating the position of Proceduralist Partitioning of the Deep South.

– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zone
– http://www.businessinsider.com/the-11-nations-of-the-united-states-2015-7

How The Establishment Manipulates Society

The intricate web that holds the Establishment together is strong and deep.

1. Big Pharma Makes Billions of Dollars Selling Drugs.

2. They then BUY Political Candidates that support their interests.

3. Political candidates pass laws that make doctors OVER-PRESCRIBE drugs like anti-depressants.

4.People take anti-depressants that harmfully changes their biochemistry so that they feel a little better, but are simultaneously ADDICTED to Big Pharma’s drugs because they’re so hard to get off of.

5. Rather than using DEPRESSION as A SIGN SOMETHING IS OFF in their life and needs to be changed, Big Pharma’s drugs sap the emotional energy needed to FIGHT AGAINST the problems in their life that are making them sick.

6. Citizens become DOCILE and accept the status quo enabling other Billion Dollar EXPLOITATIVE Industries like Big Oil, Wall Street, BIG AGRICULTURE to further run rampant over Citizens’ self interests.

To paraphrase and add onto a thought from my friend Zak Stein, a Harvard trained developmental psychologist: The Psychopharmacology industry is part of a COMPOUNDING META-CRISIS at the global level. It is an actual PHYSICAL INTERVENTION into the central nervous system that is altering millions of Americans fundamental conscious experience of daily life. And that is DECIMATING the life prospects of up and coming generations. There’s an urgency to fix this problem for the sake of the dignity of human society.

Now quoting a famous speech from the movie The Network,

“I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell,’I’M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!’”

…And then Support Bernie Sanders For President.

Because him winning the democratic nomination would be an amazing leverage point for a host of almost intractable, systemic, parasitic problems with the status quo of THE ESTABLISHMENT.

Max Marmer's photo.

Irrelevant Academic Entrepreneurship Research

I’m going to an event tomorrow where there will be a lot of entrepreneurship researchers and academics and I’m feeling irritated by how inane, arcane and irrelevant most of their research questions are.

God…so many financial resources and brain cycles spent researching topics that will not hardly move the needle on anything important — and which essentially completely miss what’s most important:

How to maximize the economic growth and the job growth of the global economy with powerful new products and services that make everyone’s life more good, true and beautiful.

I’m looking forward to laying down a new paradigm of entrepreneurship and innovation at the level of the startup, the level of the startup ecosystem and the level of the global macro economic system. Most of the hard thinking is done, for me now, it’s all about the grind of developing business systems and writing.

And then over the next few years aligning an abundance of resources to establish a feedback loop between cutting edge theory and cutting edge practice.

As of January 1st, 2016, my writing on Entrepreneurship and Innovation has now become my #1 priority…and I’m Charged Up like Drake, ready to go Back to Back.

P.S. (In case I offend any academics, let’s have a discussion where you try to convince me your research is relevant and I try to convince you to pursue a different research question).

Differentiating Between Massive Wealth Creators and Wealth Extractors

Knee jerk unfounded hating on the wealthy is really getting old, although I suspect that punching bag will only continue to get hit harder.

Words of wisdom:

Differentiate between those who are wealthy due to real societal value creation and those who have made their money thru nebulous or nefarious means. (i.e. Important Tech Companies vs. Exploitative Financial Companies)

And if the former, ‪#‎donthatetheplayerhatethegame‬. In our market based system some form of inequality is inevitable, especially as returns obey something close to a power law (aka the 80/20 rule).

The wealth being created by technology companies is a rising tide that will lift all boats. Thru technology average citizens increasingly gain access to things Kings and even Presidents never had (toilets, the internet).

Thoughts for another time: Why basic income is probably prudent economic policy to account for the simultaneous increasing exponential returns of the tech industry and its wealth concentration, along with corresponding increases in unemployment due to tech industries products ability to cost-effectively eliminate jobs.

The Difference Between Fame in Silicon Valley Vs. Los Angeles

Yesterday I wrote a status about how fame is deferentially perceived in Silicon Valley vs Los Angeles, where I said:

Most people in Silicon Valley do not want to be famous in the way most people in Los Angeles want to be famous.

Most people in Los Angeles want to be PERSONALLY famous for THEMSELVES.

Most people in Silicon Valley want their PRODUCT & BRAND to be famous for THE WORLD.

Big Difference.

And then I left this footnote in the comments:

“I should add…at least, that’s the purported ethos of Silicon Valley. More later on the insidiously increasing self-serving hypocrisy growing in Silicon Valley.”

Which seemed to resonate as much as the status itself, so let’s talk about this.

But first we need to back up a little a bit and see the big picture.

We’ve now reached an INFLECTION POINT in our transition from the Industrial Era to the Information Era.

And this is big. There have only been 5 major stages in the DOMINANT MODE OF ECONOMIC PRODUCTION in all of human history.

1. Hunter / Gatherer Era 2. Horticultural Era 3. Agricultural Era 4. Industrial Era 5. Information Era. (There are arguably intermediate stages like the service economy).

And now Information Era companies are creating A MAJORITY OF THE ECONOMIC VALUE AND JOB GROWTH. Meanwhile, Industrial Era companies are doing everything they can to stay afloat, and most are cutting costs past the point of resiliency to maintain profit margins, or already bankrupt.

See Tech Stocks like Facebook, Apple, Google, Salesforce, VMware etc and industrial era companies like General Motors, Blockbuster and Tower Records. The 2008 financial crisis is also intimately connected to this epochal transition, way more than most people realize.

In the Information Economy, SILICON VALLEY HAS EMERGED AS THE PRIMARY GROWTH ENGINE. It is by far the leading geographic ecosystem driving the growth of the Information Economy.

So in some ways THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY DEPENDS ON SILICON VALLEY not getting its culture perverted as more and more money and attention flows into its ecosystem. And the amount of money and attention flowing into Silicon Valley hasn’t even begun to peak.

Much of the future is literally depending on us (Silicon Valley) to get our values, principles and culture right, wielding our power with integrity.

So that’s a rough contextual framing of the stage we’re talking about when we talk about why HOW SILICON VALLEY RELATES TO FAME AND ATTENTION MATTERS.

More to share in the coming weeks and months on specific instances of cultural perversions and the psychology behind the pathologies breeding in our culture.

And more importantly, what we can do to keep our culture strong and uphold OUR RESPONSIBILITY OF LEADING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY TOWARDS A BETTER, MORE PROSPEROUS WORLD.


“With great power comes great responsibility…

…This our gift. This our curse.

Who are we?

The linchpin of the world of tomorrow.”