Pithy Post Potpourri – Winter/Spring 2018

If you and your partner(s) can’t both reliably access a state of awakened awareness beyond the ordinary sense of self then any exploration of non-monogamy will inevitably lead to an increase in pain and suffering.

#PsychographicEntryCriteria

When you lose your cool, when you get triggered do you tell yourself to raise your game and live up to a higher standard?

Or do you justify why it was okay to lose your cool and ascribe fault to other people and external circumstances?

This is one of the key regular decisions that separates the extraordinary humans from the ordinary.

I love my morning meditation view so much.

There is a reason yogis go to the mountaintop.

The sparkling, harmonious, blissful, spacious, luminous nature of reality is unassailably clear.

People who don’t utilize the tool of debt and credit in their life have been afflicted by a false sense of lack.

They lack sufficient belief in themselves.

And they lack a willingness to invest in themselves for the long run and to bet on themselves.

The question for analyzing whether debt and credit is worth utilizing is very simple:

Can you create more value, faster with the money you are loaned than the interest rate you are given?

One of the worst decisions the masculine can make is to seek comfort.

The masculine grows through setting big goals, pushing to exhaustion and then savoring accomplishment in the recovery phase before setting a new bigger goal that lies beyond the new expanded comfort zone.

From the higher perspective there is no such thing as rejection.

There is just energy jostling around trying to find its way into proper alignment.

From the higher perspective there is no such thing as failure.

There is just feedback about what needs to be improved and recalibrated.

Black Panther was so much better than the Last Jedi.

Plot and Story Arc.

Character Development & Consistency.

Visual Effects.

Empowering portrayal of Cultural Minorities.

…the script for Luke Skywalker was particularly terrible…acting like someone who was never a Jedi

…so many of the Star Wars characters felt like forced affirmative action plays rather than authentic casting.

…One disappointing feature of the Wakandan’s was that for being so technologically and culturally advanced in many dimensions, they still had an Ethnocentric Worldview when looking to the outside world, opining about how to help downtrodden and oppressed blacks around the world rather than how to help downtrodden and oppressed humans with their technological prowess.

All for now. No time to be a detailed movie critic.

I am currently reading the Life Divine by Sri Aurobindo.

Who else has read it?

My personal website is titled In Quest of Super Humanity and I’m coming to see how my intuitive guidance has been (previously unbeknownst to me) plugged into the same source as Aurobindo’s, especially with respect to his articulation of the Supermind and its Divine Unfolding through Humanity’s Involutionary Process.

Your body is an instrument that the Consciousness of your Soul learns to play.

An Evolved Soul is therefore a masterful musician.

Back on my own again and restarting my cooking skills after 2 years of dormancy.

Immediately noticing a shift in my relationship to food preparation as I’ve deepened my relationship to the fundamentally universal nature of subtle energy in all things.

Succinct infographic of a lot of misguided class warfare and anti-wealth sentiment from the Liberal Left.

 

The Great Lie of Wealth Expropriation

Good article on Wealth Inequality and the problems with Redistributive Government Wealth Programs.

That said I’m in favor of lower taxes and universal basic income that is at least partly funded by stock in S&P 500 companies, so rising corporate wealth is a tide that can lift all boats.

“By the time you finish reading this article, some six hundred people from all over the world will have escaped poverty.

In 1990, 35% of the world population lived in extreme poverty. Today, that figure has fallen to 10.7%, according to the World Bank .
In 1987, there were 660 million poor people in China. After its economy opened, that figure has fallen to only 25 million . In the same period, in India, the number of poor citizens has been reduced by more than one hundred million people.
Additionally, 140 million people join the middle class every year.
Despite these achievements, we are living in a time when these excellent news are ignored to focus on interventionist messages about wealth. You will read that “1% of the world controls 87% of wealth” and things like “if the ten richest people in the world gave up their wealth there would be no poverty”.

The 635 million Chinese who have escaped poverty in the last thirty years disagree. They are delighted that China is the country where most millionaires are created every year and where the middle class grows the most, and thanks to prosperity there is a “growing inequality” that is not negative at all, but positive. Inequality was 0.30 when China was starving. It is 0.50 today and the vast majority of Chinese citizens are richer and better-off. Over the last 30 years, urban disposable income per capita in China grew at an impressive 13.2% annually while the share of the population that lives in urban areas increased from 22 to 53%.”

Today Was a Good Day

My new company TrueSelf rolled out registration for our first online course — The Personality Advantage System (based on the Enneagram).

And I ripped off a $26,000 / 20+% total day gain in my options portfolio, with the biggest winners being recently made heavily concentrated bets in Lam Research and Micron.

I made these concentrated bets in these 2 companies on the basis of the stock market being short term #overbought but still rallying and those tech stocks still under participating in the recent rally, in part due to analysts underestimating the Tech Semiconductor Supercycle that is currently underway with trends in: Self-Driving Cars, Big Data, Data Centers, AI/Machine Learning, Cryptomining, Internet of Things and More.

I continue to be surprised about how low the ratio is amongst my friends of capital invested in crypto vs stocks (or any other asset class for that matter).

There is just as big a killing to be made in the stock market as the crypto market if you know how to use options for leverage.

Investing in crypto is just being an angel investor in early stage tech products. And it’s not very smart to be so concentrated in one sub-sector of tech (crypto) at one very early stage of maturity (mostly 100M -$10B with most projects being super risky with no revenue).

For long term financial performance it’s critical to exercise proper diversification across many variables:

• Company Maturity — invest in mature tech companies with billions of dollars in revenue that are changing the world, not just speculative crypto-startups with nearly 0 in revenue.

• Multiple sectors and asset classes (especially if you’re nearing 40)

• Asset allocation of your investments that properly reflects your desired risk profile. And if you pick a hyper-aggressive profile like putting more than 10% of your investable assets in crypto make sure you can stomach the volatility of the return profile. Higher returns almost always entail higher volatility. i.e. don’t buy high and sell low because you aren’t willing to ride out the downs.

One benefit of non-correlated asset allocation is the ability to rotate capital to the largest opportunities.

Due to my asset allocation of 80-90% stocks and options, and 10-20% crypto, I’m now booking some gains in the stock market with the indexes near the top end of their range and rotating at least $5k into crypto with the market near the bottom end of its range.

I’ve gained a ton of benefit from the crypto facebook group I’m in with a number of friends who regularly share knowledge, advice, links, tips and tricks and so now I’m creating an analogous group for people interested in investing and trading the stock market.

Let me know if you’d like me to add you.

‘You can’t time markets’ is simply an excuse that people who aren’t good at it make. God Bless them and their whining. We need them on the other side of the trade. – Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye

Investment, Instinct, and Insight

The recent Bloodbath in Crypto is why I keep encouraging people to practice proper Asset Allocation and Risk Management practices.

I will now happily take some of the big recent gains I made in the stock market while all the indexes have been hitting all time highs nearly every day since the new year and rotate some of that capital into crypto now with so many coins oversold.

Remember, the winning market strategy is to buy low and sell high, but your instincts want to make you do the opposite: Chase Momentum and Panic Sell.

The mantra to succeeding in trading is Buy Dips, Sell Rips.

The mantra to succeeding as a long term investor is: Hodl & Chill.

My Current Cryptocurrency & Economic Forecast

I expect the crypto-market to follow a trajectory similar to the Internet Bubble.

Attached is 36 year graph of the NASDAQ.

Crypto will dramatically change the world not just through hype and speculation, but through its revolutionary applications.

But it will take 5-10 years of hard won engineering and trial & error.

Prices will get ahead of value and there will be a rapid run-up and rapid decline.

It many ways the Crypto-Market is Internet 2.0.

Crypto is reimagining the web with a new secure protocol that enables many new decentralized applications.

I expect us to hit the peak in about 2 years with a total market cap 1.5x to 2x bigger than the internet bubble due to inflation, the accelerant of social media and that the world’s global economic infrastructure is 20 years more mature.

This gives a Peak Crypto Total Market Cap Price Target of 10-15 Trillion.

We are currently hovering close to 800 Billion in Market cap.

I think Bitcoin will fall as the #1 most valuable cryptocurrency within the next year to Ripple, Ethereum, Cardano, EOS or IOTA.

Personally I’ve got a fairly diversified portfolio of about 40-50 alt coins. That’s around the number that is recommended for proper diversification for angel investments in startups, which is what all these alt coins effectively are — early stage tech products/companies.

I pick alt-coins using the criteria of an angel investor (market opportunity, team, vision, traction, competition, status quo…with the additional factor of public receptivity due to the hype factor being such a large determinant of returns).

I swing trade a little bit and take profits off the runners and invest it into smaller alt-coins. I added to my cost basis to have around a 10% total portfolio allocation. This portfolio has run up 200-300% in just the last 6 weeks and so is already a much higher total portfolio allocation. I keep the other 90% in a diversified stock portfolio that are mostly options for leverage. I will probably let the crypto portfolio ride to the peak and try to get out somewhere within 20% of the top, rather than rebalancing the crypto portfolio.

I even arbitraged off some new 0% credit cards and a small amount at 20% interest just for fun to see if I could beat the rate — I have.

What’s scary for the whole global financial system is that there are many reports of people taking out a 2nd mortgage on their house to buy Bitcoin. So the crypto bubble bursting will likely be one significant catalyst for the next Global Financial Crisis, especially as the fall from its peak lines up well with timelines for the next recession which will likely become a depression due to all the accelerating negative feedback loops to the downside: The Current Tax Reform Bill being an excessive stimulant in the late stages of a bull market cycle, excessive government debt around the world, Geo-political instability, and stretched stock-market valuations.

When this happens I hope to be sitting pretty with a shiny bag of put options shorting the market.

For now, I’m enjoying riding the euphoria.

The future portends to be highly volatile, my friends.

Stay alert. Stay ready. Be dynamic.

What are your forecasts for the crypto-market compared to my own? And how are you personally positioning your finances?

My Hypothesis on Future Bitcoin Price Action

Cryptocurrencies represent legitimate disruptive technology. However they’re currently in a speculative bubble since the real transaction volume across the network isn’t that high, and most people are buying it for speculative purposes rather than functional purposes.

Bubbles do not die of old age and it’s possible to make a lot of money if one can get out in time.

So the key thing to look for is negative catalysts in bitcoin price in particular.

I think the main negative catalysts are another cryptocurrency overtaking bitcoin in speculative hype and when the market gets mature enough that you have a motivated group of Crypto-Bears with the technical tools to make a lot of money on the short side — either through shorting the new CME futures contracts or when a mainstream option chain is rolled out.

After motivated short sellers win their first battle that dip will be voraciously bought. But the 2nd and 3rd time they seize the momentum a panic may ensue, as there will be many new retail investors in the cryptospace who bought for purely speculative reasons who are now losing significant amounts of money. Other new-ish uneducated crypto investors may exit too — really anyone who invested for speculative purposes who does not understand the fundamental technology.

Overall I expect cryptocurrencies to follow the Gartner Hype Cycle:

And currently we are maybe 60-70% up the peak.

We will get fully up the peak when all the institutional and retail money can easily participate via futures contracts and ETFs.

One friend commented that Bitcoin has already been thru multiple Hype Cycles of which I would add:

That the Gartner Hype Cycle is fractal and applies to each segment in the life cycle adoption curve.

So the Bitcoin Innovators and Early Adopters experienced the Hype and Disillusionment, but the new Early Majority coming into the market since May of 2017 haven’t gone through that cycle yet and I suspect they will, due to a short selling dynamic like I described above.

I’m curious what other people’s thoughts on this thesis are who are following the day to day cryptomarket and cryptonews much closer than I am.