Investment, Instinct, and Insight

The recent Bloodbath in Crypto is why I keep encouraging people to practice proper Asset Allocation and Risk Management practices.

I will now happily take some of the big recent gains I made in the stock market while all the indexes have been hitting all time highs nearly every day since the new year and rotate some of that capital into crypto now with so many coins oversold.

Remember, the winning market strategy is to buy low and sell high, but your instincts want to make you do the opposite: Chase Momentum and Panic Sell.

The mantra to succeeding in trading is Buy Dips, Sell Rips.

The mantra to succeeding as a long term investor is: Hodl & Chill.

My Current Cryptocurrency & Economic Forecast

I expect the crypto-market to follow a trajectory similar to the Internet Bubble.

Attached is 36 year graph of the NASDAQ.

Crypto will dramatically change the world not just through hype and speculation, but through its revolutionary applications.

But it will take 5-10 years of hard won engineering and trial & error.

Prices will get ahead of value and there will be a rapid run-up and rapid decline.

It many ways the Crypto-Market is Internet 2.0.

Crypto is reimagining the web with a new secure protocol that enables many new decentralized applications.

I expect us to hit the peak in about 2 years with a total market cap 1.5x to 2x bigger than the internet bubble due to inflation, the accelerant of social media and that the world’s global economic infrastructure is 20 years more mature.

This gives a Peak Crypto Total Market Cap Price Target of 10-15 Trillion.

We are currently hovering close to 800 Billion in Market cap.

I think Bitcoin will fall as the #1 most valuable cryptocurrency within the next year to Ripple, Ethereum, Cardano, EOS or IOTA.

Personally I’ve got a fairly diversified portfolio of about 40-50 alt coins. That’s around the number that is recommended for proper diversification for angel investments in startups, which is what all these alt coins effectively are — early stage tech products/companies.

I pick alt-coins using the criteria of an angel investor (market opportunity, team, vision, traction, competition, status quo…with the additional factor of public receptivity due to the hype factor being such a large determinant of returns).

I swing trade a little bit and take profits off the runners and invest it into smaller alt-coins. I added to my cost basis to have around a 10% total portfolio allocation. This portfolio has run up 200-300% in just the last 6 weeks and so is already a much higher total portfolio allocation. I keep the other 90% in a diversified stock portfolio that are mostly options for leverage. I will probably let the crypto portfolio ride to the peak and try to get out somewhere within 20% of the top, rather than rebalancing the crypto portfolio.

I even arbitraged off some new 0% credit cards and a small amount at 20% interest just for fun to see if I could beat the rate — I have.

What’s scary for the whole global financial system is that there are many reports of people taking out a 2nd mortgage on their house to buy Bitcoin. So the crypto bubble bursting will likely be one significant catalyst for the next Global Financial Crisis, especially as the fall from its peak lines up well with timelines for the next recession which will likely become a depression due to all the accelerating negative feedback loops to the downside: The Current Tax Reform Bill being an excessive stimulant in the late stages of a bull market cycle, excessive government debt around the world, Geo-political instability, and stretched stock-market valuations.

When this happens I hope to be sitting pretty with a shiny bag of put options shorting the market.

For now, I’m enjoying riding the euphoria.

The future portends to be highly volatile, my friends.

Stay alert. Stay ready. Be dynamic.

What are your forecasts for the crypto-market compared to my own? And how are you personally positioning your finances?

The Quantum Physical Correlates for Grand Unified Panpsychism

Remember last month when I posted about a Grand Unification Theory of Consciousness, Physics and Time Travel?

This article describes a plausible scientific mechanism of action.

Also remember that Philosophy and insight through Direct Subjective Experience (often through consciousness-heightening methods like Meditation or Psychedelics) will always be ahead of Science.

The Meditatively-Informed Philosophers are the true Trailblazers— The Innovators. The Early Adopters.

Most Scientists are merely Late Adopters checking our work…

Once the measuring instruments and math finally catch up.

But most will never actually be able to understand what we’re talking about due to insufficient consciousness development and the sunk cost of investing in an inferior Incommensurable Paradigm.

Elon Musk is overrated

Elon Musk is an amazing entrepreneur but as a World Savior he is probably the World’s most OverRated.

1. Tesla at this point is just a luxury car brand. Electric Vehicles and Solar are inevitable developmental trends where there will be plenty of competition and no clear winner.

2. Space X is largely irrelevant to the future of the human race. It is Inner Space not Outer Space that is the edge of evolutionary progress. Premises about backup plans and inter-planetary species are severely flawed.

3. Solar City couldn’t succeed on its own.

4. Paypal is a pedestrian payments company.

5. His A.I. Fear mongering is misguided and wasting people’s time and money on an irrelevant problem.

6. Neuralink as far as I can tell is Reductionistic, committing the pervasive errors of Right-Hand Subtle Reductionism.

7. The Hyperloop is an incremental transportation innovation not a transformational one. Again the primary error is an inner space vs. outer space bias. Work is increasingly being virtualized. By the time Hyperloop is functional, if it is even scientifically possible, we will have 3D immersive virtual reality. There are other major axiomatic and trend based errors embedded in the project hypothesis as well.

I remain open to being impressed by new products and companies he creates, but that is HYPE-athetical at this point.

As for his intention, drive and work ethic, I am incredibly inspired.

Why Ray Kurzweil, Elon Musk, and Stephen Hawking Don’t Really Understand Artificial General Intelligence

Watching a recent Sci-Fi short called ‘Post-Human’ by Ray Kurzweil (https://vimeo.com/144099716) reminds me of a topic that has come up in conversation often in the last year:

“How Artificial Intelligence will affect the Future of Humanity.”

Unfortunately, all the main “thought leaders” being quoted on this topic: Ray Kurzweil, Nick Bostrom, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, are in my opinion, severely off-base.

And I have some intense critical essays to write on this topic, in the next year or so.

These “thought leaders” all show a fundamental disconnect with the Cutting Edge of Understanding in a plethora of fields and subjects essential to developing a Good, True, Beautiful and Loving Artificial Intelligence, such as: Consciousness, Developmental Psychology, Developmental Morality, Emotional Intelligence, Social Intelligence, Intersubjectivity, Subject-Object Dualism, Human Potential and Human Fulfillment.

“Thought leaders” scaring people with off base pontification is one thing.

But what I fear most is those people who have these Erroneous Ontological Assumptions about Reality being the ones who are spearheading the creation of Artificial Intelligence. For the Erroneous Assumptions in one’s Consciousness inevitably makes it into the Artifacts of one’s Creation.

Which is a fancy way of saying, if the people who create Commercially Successful AI have shitty assumptions in their worldview, they will create enormously powerful, God-like AI with shitty assumptions programmed into the AI’s worldview. If this happens it will likely cause Humanity to suffer deep and grave consequences.

The Future of Humanity likely depends on getting Artificial Intelligence right.

So it is a cause I’m committed to majorly contributing to when the time is right.

“Man is a rope, tied between beast and overman–a rope over an abyss…
What is great in man is that he is a bridge and not an end: what can be loved in man is that he is an overture and a going under” – Nietzsche

In Favor of Non-Local Consciousness

If the Universe-as-a-Simulation Hypothesis is correct…or the very least where we are somewhere not near the beginning of a chain of intelligent civilizations then the theory that some part of Consciousness does not wholly reside in the brain but rather comes through us like a radio receiver is also probably correct…because the same thing is now happening in our current technology landscape where data and processing increasingly live in the cloud and are downloaded onto the hardware on an as needed, just in time basis.

This follows because the universe shows the pattern of self-similarity all the way up and all the way down (the most popular example of this being Fractals). So the developmental design patterns we converge on as optimal for guiding our technological evolution are very likely the same design patterns present in the evolution of consciousness and humanity.

Having said all that I’m not sure I’ve found anyone’s writing who I believe as the optimal balance between information processing of Consciousness “in-the-cloud” vs. “on-the device”. Almost everyone I’ve read are on the extremes of the path.

Like the liberation of the Buddha-Mind, I prefer the middle path.

Transparadigmatic Evolution

So much yes to this transmission of wisdom.

I particularly appreciate the historical grounding here of how paradigm’s of physics are long lag harbingers of transformations in the paradigms of subjective thought.

This is a beautiful synthesis of the wisdom of the East and West and the developmental continuum that lies before us.

Yasuhiko is a self-described transdisciplinary, transparadigmatic entrepreneurial philosopher and I am a self-described transdisciplinary, transparadigmatic philosophical entrepreneur.

 

A significant aspect of the problem of the world overlooked.

That is, virtually all critical problems that we have today arise within the framework of duality (e.g., the haves vs. the have-nots) and virtually all discussions that we have in order to solve those problems arise within the framework of duality (e.g., capitalism vs. socialism).

Thus, the problem, the diagnosis, and the solution come to exist inside the same dualistic paradigm and the same antagonistic framework. Therefore we see two parties come together to fight over how to bring peace to the world.

The American Revolution took place as a societal expression of the Newtonian Scientific Revolution in the Age of Reason. We still think in the language of the 18th and 19th century. The language used and the logic expressed in economics and political “science” are still that of the Newtonian Age, and it is the language and logic of duality.

The next societal revolution, the societal revolution of the 21st century, will need a different language, a different logic, a different paradigm. As the American Revolution of the 18th century was an extension of the Scientific Revolution of the 17th and 18th centuries, so will be the next revolution an extension of the Quantum Revolution of the 20th century.

A new revolution that defines the 20th century began on December 14th, 1900, when the physicist Max Planck presented his work on black body radiation at the German Physical Society in Berlin, which led to the development of quantum physics that has had a profound, epochal, and lasting influence not only in the fields of physics, science, and human knowledge as such, but also in the very logic that underlies thought: “quantum logic” that transcends the seeming contradiction of quantum particles being simultaneously particular and wavier (in the quantum, not the classical, sense).

The ternary logic that transcends duality has existed for millennia in the East and the West, in the esoteric philosophical traditions, but the inquiry into this “quantum paradox” brought to the fore the transcendental ternary logic of ‘the included middle’—into the domain of rational discourses outside and beyond the obscure ancient esoteric spiritual philosophies or metaphysics. Transcending duality is no longer only a matter of individual “spiritual/philosophical enlightenment” but an urgent issue of collective societal transformation and evolution.

What I call the transparadigmatic omnicentric state of mind or consciousness and the omnicentric synarchical world are possible only when a significant percentage of humanity begins to think and act transdualistically. There are 6,000 distinct languages and 10,000 distinct ethnic cultures, and in-between there are 8,000 academic disciplines to study everything. It is utterly ridiculous and futile to try to centrally control the destiny of humanity and the world (“world government”). What is required is translinguistic, transcultural, and transdiciplinary approach for which the transparadigmatic mind is essential.

For this reason, within this transparadigmatic framework, I support everyone’s attempt at creating a new world in the spirit of alignment beyond agreement, while pursuing my individual path that is the creation and advancement of the omnicentric and synarchical freeorder in the world, for which second-tier free market economy is a partial precursor. Those who share the same orientation can join me. Those who do not, I support you wholeheartedly so long as you do not interfere with my/our path. An open and rational criticism is welcome. I/we will not interfere with your path, while I/we will reserve the right to offer you a constructive criticism.

There will arise a cooperative competition amongst various approaches and we will continue to dynamically integrate and improve what works from our and your approaches, while we will continue to discard what does not work. And thus we participate, in alignment beyond agreement, in the continual evolution of the world. – [source]