One things I’ve been mulling on with the #metoo movement is reconciling the statistical prevalence of all the people who do depraved shit: Domestic Abuse, Sexual Abuse, Pedophilia, Incest etc
And who the people are who are committing these crimes?
How many of them silently live in the communities and social events we co-mingle with?
As many people who I have intuitively sensed there was something ‘off’ with them, have been outted as Alleged Depraved Abusers, I’m wondering how reliable the intuitive impression of something being off about somebody is a predictor of Depravity?
By my back of the napkin calculations, it seems like it very likely is a very good predictor.
Take a look at the statistics:
Domestic Abuse: 1 in 3 women and 1 in 4 men have been victims of [some form of] physical violence by an intimate partner within their lifetime.
Sexual Assault: One in four women and one in six men will be sexually assaulted in their lifetime.
Pedophilia: Self-report studies show that 20% of adult females and 5-10% of adult males recall a childhood sexual assault or sexual abuse incident;
Incest: an overwhelming incidence of sexual abuse happens within the family. These statistics are well known among industry professionals, who are often quick to add, “and this is a notoriously underreported crime.”
So unless all of these crimes are highly clustered amongst a very small subset of people, rather than these types of crimes being more individual distributed
i.e. is it more likely there a few people who commit domestic abuse, sexual abuse, pedophilia and incest, or is more likely there some people who commit domestic abuse and others sexual abuse but not both?
I would lean to the crimes being more evenly distributed.
And if that’s the case then I roughly estimate 15-25% of the population commits these Depravities.
And I would wager that the intuitive sense of something being ‘off’ about someone is picking up on connection to these Depravities… either as a Depraved Perpetrator or a Depraved Victim, or more likely both — as abusers were usually at one point in their life the abused. As abuse is a notoriously hard behavioral, physiological and karmic cycle to break.
What are your thoughts on this?
Does this rough bayesian inference estimation method of Off-ness correlating to Depravity make sense? Can anyone better at Bayesian math tan me put some more rigorous bayesian math behind this?
Yesterday a facebook friend of mine posted this — and it got a lot of attention, energy and engagement:
I’d like to mention another phenomenon I’ve noticed regarding male behavior: the sensitive spiritual guy who loves women SO MUCH that he just has to LOVE THEM ALL (i.e., is constantly engaging in quasi or blatantly poly emotional or sensual or sexual behavior, is surreptitiously or blatantly “checking other women out,” is puppy piling every chance he gets – and all of this even when in a committed relationship, etc). And he can get away with it because he’s the rare appealing spiritual guy in a sea of 100 other amazing & awakening women. This one’s a bit more pernicious, because it LOOKS like men trying to “heal” or “appreciate” the feminine, but my experience is that it’s more shakti stealing….Can anyone relate? Feels like a continuation of male privilege behavior in new age guise. I’ve also recently been at some mixed gender awareness events & I heard the confession of men that “I simply can’t help myself when an attractive woman is around, I go all to pieces, even if I’m married, and what do I do with that energy?” Something feels off to me with that, as well.
And I wanted to offer a script to beat these men at their own narrative control game.
If he says something like, “I simply can’t help myself when an attractive woman is around, I go all to pieces, even if I’m married, and what do I do with that energy?”
Tell him, “You might want to focus on spiritual development over attending to the Feminine, because spiritually developed people have mastered their impulses and reactivity.”
Then ask him, “What’s more important to you: your spiritual development or fulfilling your sexual desires?”
He will probably say ‘spiritual development’ to keep the act going.
Then when he says “spiritual development”,
Tell him, “Probably the best way for you to progress spiritually would be to take a vow of celibacy for a while until you have control over your sexual impulses. Then once you have control over your impulses you can reintegrate your sexuality into your spiritually.
This would both serve your Higher Self and the Collective Feminine.
That’s what you really want right??
Because right now your un-integrated leaky sexuality is perpetuating the problem.”
My assessment of the situation is that most of these Sensitive New Age Guys (SNAGs) are just unconscious Wolves in Sheep Clothing.
They unwittingly move towards the behaviors that confer evolutionarily advantages towards advancing the base desires of sex, power and genetic replication.
Imitation is rampantly successful in the Evolutionary Record and the history of Natural Selection.
It is much easier to imitate Spiritual Development and attempt to reap the rewards from that status than to actually BECOME Spiritually Developed.
“[Life After Hate is an organization] founded by former white supremacist leaders in 2011, it studies the forces that draw people to hate and helps those who are willing to disengage from radical extremist movements.
Life After Hate’s approach focuses on compassion, counseling, and redemption. The idea of redeeming a white nationalist or neo-Nazi is understandably shocking to many Americans — and for many but history is full of examples of people who’ve shed their hatred and repented later in life.
Rangel is a believer. He himself comes from a life of redemption. He rejects the idea that people drawn to extremism can’t be redeemed based on his own experience.
“The rest of the team were all members of white supremacist groups and were in leadership roles. They were the core of those groups.”
“I had a lot of mental health diagnoses that said I was incorrigible, I was anti-social … basically that I couldn’t change, and yet here I am.”
“What we all have in common, for the most part, is that compassion and empathy are common themes in what helped turn us around,” he said. “What finally got through.”
That puts Rangel’s organization on the opposite side of activists and organizations that are using punitive tactics, such as online shaming and physical fights, against white nationalist groups.
The negative things that we think to do to challenge the other side only help us dig in. It’s only through kindness, it’s only through understanding, it’s only through compassion and peace that people were able to get past all of our armor. It was never aggression, it was never shaming.”
Rangel said that white nationalist organizations promote a sense of belonging to individuals who join, something that is hyper-charged by the internet — where extremist groups can confirm and exacerbate people’s fears and vulnerabilities
“We get online and then we follow a rabbit hole of algorithms that takes us down a deep but narrower path … that helps validate our concerns, helps validate what we’re afraid about, and then we realize we’re not alone,” he said. “Where it turns into extremism is when they promote this sense of social obligation as a sense of activism, and that the only way to be activist is to be violent. That’s where it goes into extremism.”
“I would say is what we would offer would come from a place of being nonjudgmental. Whatever we would talk about would definitely stay between us. And that we would like to share our own experience as Formers and share what has been helpful to us in turning around the way we participate in life … whenever they’re ready our door would be open to them.”
Critics may accuse Life After Hate of naïveté, and argue that the only way to deal with such elements of our society is with shame, not compassion.
If the goal, though, is not immediate moral satisfaction but actually reducing the strength of white supremacist movements, the more effective path may lie in empathy.
For Rangel, the dozens of white nationalists the organization has convinced to give up their past ways are proof enough to him of his approach. “I would say show me the evidence,” he replied. “Tell me not what you can think or feel but what you can prove. If you can show me someone you have shamed into changing, beaten into changing, by all means I want to see that. But I don’t think that’s the way for anyone.”
What if we created the equivalent of a Special Economic Zone for White Nationalists and called it a Special Cultural Zone (SCZ).
The deal is they can have Mississippi and a few other Deep South States to enact and preserve the White Nationalist Culture they want.
In exchange, White Nationalism is not tolerated anywhere else.
There are no White Nationalist rallies allowed in the rest of America. Confederate statues can be taken down. Swastikas are considered prohibited hate speech…etc.
Those who want to engage in White Nationalist culture can go to their designated “Safe Space”.
Federal laws still apply. There is no descent back into slavery and murderous vigilantism.
There is a year long transition period where those who don’t want to be a part of that culture can move out.
Thoughts? Could this work? Why or Why Not?
Update: My proposal is not without historical and academic precedent. A friend shared with me this paper in the comments on the arguments for and against Partitioning, with many historical case studies.