Why the Models Probably Underestimate Bernie Sanders chance of Winning the Democratic Nomination

Predict Wise gives Bernie Sanders an 18% of chance of winning the Democratic Nomination.

Without studying the model, I think that is a grave underestimate.

I would give Bernie Sanders an intuitive Bayesian Prior of 65% of winning the Democratic Nomination right now.

Whether I move that number up or down depends on the unfolding skillful means of his campaign team.

Bernie Sanders has struck an incredibly powerful chord. A movement is brewing that will accrue exponential momentum that these models aren’t forecasting.

I think my facebook feed is a powerful early adopter signal and it is overwhelmingly pro-Bernie. And Bernie will Successfully Cross Geoffrey Moore’s Chasm.

Here are 5 big presumptive flaws in the current prediction model that puts Bernie at 18%, but will eventually tip the scales in his favor:

1. The Apathetic, Disenfranchised Millennial

Most pollsters expect this demographic to not come out to vote because they haven’t come out in the past. But they haven’t come out in the past because they believe the system is fundamentally broken. And the system is fundamentally broken, but now there’s finally a candidate who represents the viewpoint that system is fundamentally broken. So Bernie Sanders is activating a huge well of energy that was considered off the map. I see him tapping into the same energy of Hope and Change that Obama tapped into but was unable to fully deliver on, in part because he was too much of diplomat and not enough of a fighter. Bernie actually has the character disposition, track record and values to pick up where Obama left off.

He is tapping into an authentic moral developmental sequence of the universe. For those who know Integral Spiral Dynamics, he is the first full spectrum Green candidate, unlike Obama and Hillary who are Orange/Green. [Orange and Green roughly stand for Modernism and Post-Modernism] .

2. The Socialized Mind

There have been a plethora of tropes about Bernie Sanders not being capable of winning. Now that results have come in Iowa, he undeniably has to be taken seriously. He will likely win New Hampshire because it’s near his home state and then he will have a ton of momentum.

The Majority of American voters are in the psychological stage of development that Harvard Developmental Psychologists Robert Kegan would call the Socialized Mind. Essentially this means people primarily make decisions based on what their social circle is doing rather than really critically thinking for themselves.

When a population is made up primarily of people who are Socialized Minds, that population is incredibly susceptible to momentum.

3. The Socialized Mind Momentum Swing will Trigger a Bernie Sanders Fundraising Tidal Swell

We already saw the legitimizing effect the Iowa Caucus had on Sanders’ fundraising efforts yesterday: he raised 3 Million dollars in one day — his biggest day ever.http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/267999-sanders-raised-3m-in-24-hours-his-biggest-single-day-yet

I expect his fundraising success to continue to in a positive feedback loop:
Appears more credible -> Raises more money -> Runs a more effective campaign -> Gets Results -> Appears more credible

4. Mainstream Media Indicators vs. Social Media indicators

The mainstream media has ignored Bernie. Yet Bernie has succeeded anyway. Mainstream media influences linearly and static-ly. The models and pundits underestimate the viral, interactive nature of social media.

5. Winning the Black Vote

The models say he struggles with this demographic. But that’s probably because he looks like a white grumpy grandpa who is easily dismissed on first impression. And Clinton has long time name recognition with Southern born Bill Clinton serving them well.

All the aforementioned factors will force Bernie to be seriously considered rather than dismissed on first impression.

Black leaders like Cornell West saying Bernie Sanders stands on the legacy of Martin Luther King will tip the scales in his favor.

I must admit — 3 years ago I posted I thought Hillary Clinton had probably better than 80% chance of being the next President of the United States.(https://www.facebook.com/maxhmarmer/posts/4410505574849)

I did not see Bernie coming.

But I’m very glad The Bern has arrived.

Reflections on the DNC Shutting Down Bernie Sanders’ Campaign’s Access to the Voter File

The Status Quo of both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is Fucked.

This incident just further entrenched Hilary Clinton into the FUCKED Category.

A message from the Bernie Sanders Campaign on “The Incident”:

“Rather incredibly, the leadership of the DNC has used this incident to shut down our ability to access our own information, information which is the lifeblood of any campaign. This is the information about our supporters, our volunteers, the lists of people we intend to contact in Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere. This is information that we have worked hard to obtain. It is our information, not the DNCs.

In other words, by their action, the leadership of the Democratic National Committee is now actively attempting to undermine our campaign. This is unacceptable. Individual leaders of the DNC can support Hillary Clinton in any way they want, but they are not going to sabotage our campaign – one of the strongest grassroots campaigns in modern history.

We are announcing today that if the DNC continues to hold our data hostage, and continues to try to attack the heart and soul of our campaign, we will be in federal court this afternoon seeking an immediate injunction.”

https://berniesanders.com/press-release/statement-jeff-weaver/

It’s the Continuation of Crony Capitalism, Special Interest Corporate Corruption and DEMOSCELEROSIS at its Richest.

(definition of demoscelerosis: government’s progressive loss of the ability to adapt as a side-effect of the postwar style of politics that emphasizes interest-group activism and redistributive programs)

I love the way Bernie is handling this incident. It emboldens my FAITH about the QUALITY of President he would be.

Truth be told Al Gore and John Kerry both probably beat George W. Bush in their respective Elections due to the shady strategies and tactics Dick Cheney Masterfully Engineered. But honestly, neither Gore nor Kerry DESERVED to win. Because they didn’t know how to FIGHT.

Dirty players ALMOST ALWAYS stand in the way of Justice, Truth Goodness, and VICTORY.

How one handles DIRTY PLAYERS is a true TEST OF THEIR CHARACTER.

Most people whine about how life is UNFAIR. The GREAT ONES OVERCOME any and all Adversity.

Here’s to hoping Bernie Sanders can use this Dirty Tactic employed by Hilary Clinton and her Acolytes to TURN the TABLES against her and in doing so DISRUPT the Status Quo of American Governance — Lighting the way to a bright early 21st century of Global Politics.

Bernie’s Biggest Obstacle to the Presidency of the United States is Hilary Clinton. Not the GOP — they continue to prove themselves as incredibly dysfunctional and lost.

Hilary Clinton’s group would not have employed this tactic if they were not SCARED of Bernie Sanders. And the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries are known to be quite the tone setter and tide turners.

So, from a Systemic Simulatory Perspective perhaps the most important battle for Global Politics for the next decade is being WAGED RIGHT NOW.

I’ve been rather disinterested in the General Election so far, waiting for the Election Process to truly RIPEN before giving it Attention (Trump is just a bombastic, self-promoting, eventually impotent distraction…)…but now it looks like it’s time I punch my ticket to the Main Event…it has begun!

The Paris Attacks & Worldcentric Hypocrisy

More Big Picture Perspective on the Paris Attacks and my polarizing post on Worldcentric Hypocrisy:

Is World Peace one of your deepest desires for the world?

It is one of mine.

And the Worldcentric Hypocrisy I was calling out on Saturday stands directly in the way of World Peace’s fruition.

Here’s how:

We can’t have World Peace until…

We have Socioeconomic Systems and Geopolitical Policy based on Worldcentric values…

…That have more power than Socioeconomic Systems and Geopolitical Policy based on Ethnocentric and Nationcentric Values…

And we can’t have that until we have Powerful Worldcentric Government Institutions…

And we can’t have that until the worldcentric value system has sufficient socioeconomic power

…which can be roughly calculated by the number of individuals who live by worldcentric values multiplied by their worldly power…

And right now a sufficient number of people—particularly people in my social network— are professing to have worldcentric values while not taking actions consistent with a worldcentric value system…

So I passionately called out their Hypocrisy…

…because it is a tipping point issue for World Peace.

And I would rather call out the Ugly Truth than permit a Beautiful Lie.

The battleground begins with the Worldcentric Valuesystem winning out over the Ethnocentric and Nationcentric Value system amongst one’s peers…

Which can spread outwardly to influence the rest of society.

You want World Peace and the end of violent, brutal, deathly conflict?

Then you must stand by and live into a Worldcentric Valuesystem capable of creating World Peace…

Ethnocentric and Nationcentric Valuesystems wil not suffice.

Which means you must relate to all Humans as your Brothers and Sisters.

Because they are.

Not just the ones who live in places you have travelled to, like Paris.

Not just the ones who look like you, dress like you and talk like you.

Because we are One.

‪#‎OneHumanRace‬ ‪#‎OneLove‬

ON THE PARIS ATTACKS & GLOBAL CONFLICT: ETHNOCENTRIC OUTRAGE WILL NOT CREATE WORLD PEACE

 

A terrible tragedy occurred in Paris yesterday.

I was gone all day yesterday, so I have not had time to analyze the details of the event.

But this post I just saw resonated with one of my strong first impressions.

The proportional relative attention on my Facebook feed directed towards the Paris attacks compared to many other conflicts around the world shows by and large most of my social network is operating from:

Ethnocentric Consciousness; where White Deaths are Valued Way More than Non-White Deaths.

And a more subtle, but equally important point is that most people’s consciousness seem to be Pre-Sysematic, where events are reacted to primarily due to their emotional shock value, rather than to their relationship to the whole underlying complex geo-political environment that was going to inevitably produce Terrorist inflicted tragedies like this — so while the killings are gravely horrible, from a Systemic Perspective it is also not Shocking, due to its high probability.

If we want World Peace we must take Einstein’s heed and upgrade our Consciousness.

“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them”.

Only a World with a sufficient number of Global Leaders and Citizenry with Worldcentric Care, Empathy and Justice married with Integrally Systematic Strategy and Action can create a World of Peace.

Paul Romer said “A crises is a terrible thing to waste”, and my hope when crises like these occur is that they cause people to examine the Limitations of their beliefs and the ways in which the status quo is Untenable.

And if trying to find solutions to the incredibly complex global geo-political environment feels so overwhelming to you, that it drives you to stasis and complacency, then the words from this famous movie speech in ‘The Network’ may resonate with you — where a news anchor is imploring his fellow citizens not to be resigned to the complexity of the National Economic Depression.

“I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot – I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, ‘I’m a HUMAN BEING, God damn it! My life has VALUE!’ So I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell, ‘I’M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!’ (source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug)

Only emotional intensity like that can provide the fuel for the Indomitable Will required to systematically redesign a World where ‪#‎AllLivesMatter‬ and all murderous violence is replaced with World Peace.

Max Marmer's photo.

On The Paris Attacks: How Ethnocentric Solidarity Can Hypocritically Betray The Desire For World Peace

Alright, it is time for some tough love truth-telling to break the cognitive dissonance of the hypocrisy of so many about their purported worldcentric values and global empathy.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:

Changing your profile picture to French colors is supporting the ETHNOCENTRIC Worldview that lead to the CREATION and TERRORISM of ISIS and the DEATH of the PARISIANS in the first place.

YOUR ETHNOCENTRISM IS THE SAME ETHNOCENTRISM THAT DRIVES ISIS TO BRUTALLY KILL.

I would have to do a lot more research on Middle East Politics to be a bonafide expert on the topic but I know enough to say:

The GEOPOLITICAL POLICY of the United States and The European Union CREATED ISIS and FUELED the FIRE of RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM.

The HATE & DESTRUCTION of ISIS is a REFLECTION of THE WESTERN WORLD’S LACK of WORLDCENTRIC LOVE, COMPASSION and SKILLFUL MEANS.

We are REAPING what we SOWED.

The BUSH ADMINISTRATION and its PUPPET MASTER: CORPORATE AMERICA created ISIS with the 2003 INVASION of IRAQ that was executed on LIES, GREED, INTOLERANCE and INCOMPETENCY, using the instruments of the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX and MASS MEDIA LIES & BRAINWASHING.

“The world doesn’t believe that you fightin’ for freedom
Cause you fucked the Middle East, and gave birth to a demon”
– Immortal Technique

All life is precious, but you know what? This might sound cold and harsh, but hardly anybody died in Paris yesterday.

127 people died.

And if recency is your claim for your emotionality, 43 people died and 239 were wounded in terrorist attacks by ISIS in BEIRUT a day before the Paris attacks. (http://mic.com/articles/128551/terrorist-suicide-bombing-attack-on-beirut-lebanon-kills-43-and-injures-hundreds)

Look at the difference in google searched between the Paris attacks and the Beirut attacks:

(https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=paris%20attack%2C%20beirut%20attack&date=now%207-d&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B5)

2-3x more people died in the Paris attacks but it got over 100 times more attention than the Beirut attacks.

In Baghdad yesterday, a suicide bomber struck at a funeral for a militiaman who was killed in battle; at least 21 were killed and 46 were wounded. (http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/11/13/suicide-bomber-kills-at-least-21-in-baghdad.html)

200-300 people were killed across conflicts yesterday in the Iraq/Syria civil war. (http://original.antiwar.com/updates/2015/11/13/kurds-liberate-yazidi-city-207-killed-across-iraq/)

But those events are all largely ignored on Facebook and America Media.

In social psychology there is a research tool called the Implicit Association Test, which can find out what your subconscious truly believes despite what you profess to believe. Many people have been revealed to be racist, sexist and homophobic who claim not to be, through tests like these. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implicit-association_test

We don’t need to do an implicit association test to prove WORLDCENTRIC HYPOCRISY here.

It’s LIVE, REAL-TIME SCIENTIFIC DATA & EVIDENCE.

Do you know how many people have died in the Iraq War and the Syrian Civil War that America created?

151,000 to 1 Million Iraqis are estimated to have died in the conflict, many of them women, children and civilian non combatants.

220,000 people have been killed in the Syrian Civil War.

The MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT we CREATED has led to 3 Million SYRIAN REFUGEES.

WHO THE EUROPEAN UNION WILL BARELY & RELUCTANTLY ONLY WITH ARM TWISTING, OFFERS SOME SHELTER FOR.

What does it mean that I see over 100 TIMES MORE POSTS about the PARIS TERRORIST ATTACKS than about the death tolls in SYRIA and IRAQ?

How many people even died in 9/11?

About 3,000.

That number is pathetically small compared to IRAQ/SYRIA casualties.

If you believe you hold the Values of WORLDCENTRIC EMPATY where ALL LIVES MATTER you should be ASHAMED of your HYPOCRISY.

And don’t contract or lash out at me in bitterness for calling out the Truth.

ADMIT YOUR MISTAKE.

READ. RESEARCH. REFLECT.

CHANGE YOUR PERSPECTIVE.

LET YOUR SHAME FUEL YOUR TRANSFORMATION.

There are Solutions to ISIS and Religious Extremism but it’s not more Violence.

“An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind” – Gandhi.

The solution lies in large part in Integral Developmental Religious Pluralism and Economic Integration and Interdependence but that’s a topic for another day.

Today is about looking at yourself in the mirror.

And asking yourself if you’re really LIVING YOUR VALUES.

Asking yourself,

“If the incidents of the world that EMOTIONALLY RESONATE with YOU ARE TRULY REFLECTIVE of YOUR SELF-PROCLAIMED GLOBAL EMPATHY and YOUR DEISRE FOR WORLD PEACE?”

‪#‎OneHumanRace‬ ‪#‎OneLove‬

Seeing the Israel Palestinian Gordian Knot Thru Time

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I’m coming to see that the Gaza conflict can’t be simplified to Israeli sovereignty vs. Palestinian sovereignty.

Whether Israel can grant the Palestinian’s sovereignty is wrapped up in the far more complex game of worldwide Islamic politics and where they are in their transition to modern and post-modern values.

Until the Muslim world has stably grown beyond pre-modern values and hold that ground for a number of years, it may not be possible for Israel to support a Palestinian state.

So any two-state solution is probably in a holding pattern until other tensions around the global political and socioeconomic landscape resolve themselves.

Though I believe this episode of violence can resolve itself much sooner as the status quo for the last decade is returned to.

Untying this Gordian knot requires zooming out and seeing the extended lines of tension.

Standing With Israel Here

Alright. I’ve read enough about the Israel-Palestinian conflict that I’m casting my vote in solidarity with Israel, without condoning every single one of their actions.

I’m not posting this to enter into extensive debate as I am unlikely to consider it productive, but rather am posting this to show others in the minority who support Israel that they are not alone.

The final straw for me was listening to excellent 15 minutes of analysis by Sam Harris, a thinker who I deeply trust and respect on matters that require dealing with the complexity of religious faith, morality and politics.

http://www.samharris.org/b…/item/why-dont-i-criticize-israel

My overall take is that the root cause of the problem is the violent pre-modern views of Hamas and other fundamental Islamic groups.

From a western PR perspective this is a case of post modern naiveté (green) permitting premodern extremism and violence leading to the morally incorrect stance of disproportionately criticizing Israel.

Generally this naive post modern perspective:

– Overreacts to individual narratives of women and children dying and cannot comprehend the complexity of the conflict and how death tolls are not an accurate metric to determine moral superiority in this conflict.

– Does not understand moral development as a legitimate psychological reality

– Does not understand the historical and inherent anti-semitism in the region.

The most powerful question Sam proposes is what would each side do if it had the power to achieve their aims?

Israel would live in peace with its neighbors whereas Hamas the governing party in Gaza is classified by many global institutions as a terrorist organization and has regularly had jewish genocidal claims as part of its agenda.