Today Was a Good Day

My new company TrueSelf rolled out registration for our first online course — The Personality Advantage System (based on the Enneagram).

And I ripped off a $26,000 / 20+% total day gain in my options portfolio, with the biggest winners being recently made heavily concentrated bets in Lam Research and Micron.

I made these concentrated bets in these 2 companies on the basis of the stock market being short term #overbought but still rallying and those tech stocks still under participating in the recent rally, in part due to analysts underestimating the Tech Semiconductor Supercycle that is currently underway with trends in: Self-Driving Cars, Big Data, Data Centers, AI/Machine Learning, Cryptomining, Internet of Things and More.

I continue to be surprised about how low the ratio is amongst my friends of capital invested in crypto vs stocks (or any other asset class for that matter).

There is just as big a killing to be made in the stock market as the crypto market if you know how to use options for leverage.

Investing in crypto is just being an angel investor in early stage tech products. And it’s not very smart to be so concentrated in one sub-sector of tech (crypto) at one very early stage of maturity (mostly 100M -$10B with most projects being super risky with no revenue).

For long term financial performance it’s critical to exercise proper diversification across many variables:

• Company Maturity — invest in mature tech companies with billions of dollars in revenue that are changing the world, not just speculative crypto-startups with nearly 0 in revenue.

• Multiple sectors and asset classes (especially if you’re nearing 40)

• Asset allocation of your investments that properly reflects your desired risk profile. And if you pick a hyper-aggressive profile like putting more than 10% of your investable assets in crypto make sure you can stomach the volatility of the return profile. Higher returns almost always entail higher volatility. i.e. don’t buy high and sell low because you aren’t willing to ride out the downs.

One benefit of non-correlated asset allocation is the ability to rotate capital to the largest opportunities.

Due to my asset allocation of 80-90% stocks and options, and 10-20% crypto, I’m now booking some gains in the stock market with the indexes near the top end of their range and rotating at least $5k into crypto with the market near the bottom end of its range.

I’ve gained a ton of benefit from the crypto facebook group I’m in with a number of friends who regularly share knowledge, advice, links, tips and tricks and so now I’m creating an analogous group for people interested in investing and trading the stock market.

Let me know if you’d like me to add you.

Investment, Instinct, and Insight

The recent Bloodbath in Crypto is why I keep encouraging people to practice proper Asset Allocation and Risk Management practices.

I will now happily take some of the big recent gains I made in the stock market while all the indexes have been hitting all time highs nearly every day since the new year and rotate some of that capital into crypto now with so many coins oversold.

Remember, the winning market strategy is to buy low and sell high, but your instincts want to make you do the opposite: Chase Momentum and Panic Sell.

The mantra to succeeding in trading is Buy Dips, Sell Rips.

The mantra to succeeding as a long term investor is: Hodl & Chill.

My Current Cryptocurrency & Economic Forecast

I expect the crypto-market to follow a trajectory similar to the Internet Bubble.

Attached is 36 year graph of the NASDAQ.

Crypto will dramatically change the world not just through hype and speculation, but through its revolutionary applications.

But it will take 5-10 years of hard won engineering and trial & error.

Prices will get ahead of value and there will be a rapid run-up and rapid decline.

It many ways the Crypto-Market is Internet 2.0.

Crypto is reimagining the web with a new secure protocol that enables many new decentralized applications.

I expect us to hit the peak in about 2 years with a total market cap 1.5x to 2x bigger than the internet bubble due to inflation, the accelerant of social media and that the world’s global economic infrastructure is 20 years more mature.

This gives a Peak Crypto Total Market Cap Price Target of 10-15 Trillion.

We are currently hovering close to 800 Billion in Market cap.

I think Bitcoin will fall as the #1 most valuable cryptocurrency within the next year to Ripple, Ethereum, Cardano, EOS or IOTA.

Personally I’ve got a fairly diversified portfolio of about 40-50 alt coins. That’s around the number that is recommended for proper diversification for angel investments in startups, which is what all these alt coins effectively are — early stage tech products/companies.

I pick alt-coins using the criteria of an angel investor (market opportunity, team, vision, traction, competition, status quo…with the additional factor of public receptivity due to the hype factor being such a large determinant of returns).

I swing trade a little bit and take profits off the runners and invest it into smaller alt-coins. I added to my cost basis to have around a 10% total portfolio allocation. This portfolio has run up 200-300% in just the last 6 weeks and so is already a much higher total portfolio allocation. I keep the other 90% in a diversified stock portfolio that are mostly options for leverage. I will probably let the crypto portfolio ride to the peak and try to get out somewhere within 20% of the top, rather than rebalancing the crypto portfolio.

I even arbitraged off some new 0% credit cards and a small amount at 20% interest just for fun to see if I could beat the rate — I have.

What’s scary for the whole global financial system is that there are many reports of people taking out a 2nd mortgage on their house to buy Bitcoin. So the crypto bubble bursting will likely be one significant catalyst for the next Global Financial Crisis, especially as the fall from its peak lines up well with timelines for the next recession which will likely become a depression due to all the accelerating negative feedback loops to the downside: The Current Tax Reform Bill being an excessive stimulant in the late stages of a bull market cycle, excessive government debt around the world, Geo-political instability, and stretched stock-market valuations.

When this happens I hope to be sitting pretty with a shiny bag of put options shorting the market.

For now, I’m enjoying riding the euphoria.

The future portends to be highly volatile, my friends.

Stay alert. Stay ready. Be dynamic.

What are your forecasts for the crypto-market compared to my own? And how are you personally positioning your finances?

Do Not Do a Vipassana Retreat. Do Not Practice Transcendental Meditation. Do Not Pass Go.

If you would like to progress quickly along the spiritual path through meditation, do not go to a Vipassana retreat.
Do not practice transcendental meditation.
Do not learn from a teacher whose central teaching is mindfulness.
These are all inferior methods that will likely slow down your progress for years, leave you stuck in meditative eddies, leave you feeling frustrated, and will likely lead to you giving up on meditation as a transformational practice.
I have seen this happen to too many people.
There are many far better options for learning how to meditate.
For the sake of all beings,
Heed these words of caution.

Don’t Listen to Sam Harris on Spirituality — His Depth is Childish

This quote from Sam Harris has been making the rounds:

“Science has revealed a world that doesn’t care about us. Or if it does, it has a strange way of showing it. The universe cares about us exactly this much. It loves us as much as it loved the dinosaurs. Spirituality has nothing in principle to do with the idea that the universe cares about you.”

What this quote actually reveals is that Sam Harris is far from understanding the cutting edge of Science and knows little about Spirituality, yet he vastly overrates his skillful attainment in both domains.

He is in fact a dinosaur. A large creature that presumes itself to be atop of the foodchain (of the intelligentsia) yet is unaware of the maladaptivity of his worldview and the meteors barreling down on him that will perform natural selection on his overly reductionistic and materialistic worldview.

You can follow Sam, as I once did 5-10 years ago, but if you don’t evolve beyond the worldview he represents you will also be a casualty of coming waves of cultural and memetic natural selection…

As the new wave of Integral Whole Systems Spiritually Awakened Entrepreneurs, Leaders and Communities use the Competitive Advantage of this New Level of Development to Disrupt the fuck out of the Status Quo.

As Bruno Mars said,

“Cause uptown funk gon’ give it to you
Don’t believe me just watch.”

On Accountability Partners for Visions, Goals, and Resolutions

Personally, I almost never use accountability partners or other people to hold me accountable to my goals or resolutions.

I am accountable to myself and the high standards I set for myself.

And that is all I need.

If you need someone else to hold you accountable to your goals and resolutions that probably means you have these two things going on:

1) You don’t want it bad enough.

You need to increase the compellingness of your vision, goals and resolutions and anchor them with more burning desire, emotional intensity and physical movement.

2) You have unresolved parts conflict.

Part of you wants to realize your vision, goals and resolution, but other parts don’t.

This can happen because other parts have other conflicting beliefs or fears about what will happen if those visions or goals are realized.

Like, “What if I’m too successful and I can’t handle it”…or “what if xyz people don’t like me anymore once I make this change in my life”.

You have to consciously talk to the different parts of yourself and get in full parts alignment within yourself.

In the interim, if accountability partners help you move towards your vision, goals and resolutions, then use them…as progress will create the momentum and confidence for more progress, and eventually taking off the ‘training wheels’ of accountability buddies.

Do You Want to Know the REAL SECRET to Healing All Your Neuroses and Trauma?

It’s this.

 

Despite the satirical callousness of this approach, it is not without merit when used in its proper context.

From a neuroplasticity perspective whatever we give attention to is biologically strengthened, and whatever we ignore is biologically weakened.

The neurons associated with particular experiences literally grow or die based on how we respond to them when they enter our consciousness.

The oft-used pithy phrase is “Neurons that fire together, wire together.”

The biggest missing ingredient from going from comedic awakening to realization is ‘how’.

“How do I stop my ingrained patterns of thinking?”

The answer is:

a) The right training in meditation to learn how to control your thoughts

b) the right therapeutic methods to activate and release childhood trauma and attachment disorders

c) Finding loving, accepting friends, family and healers, who hold you as both perfect as you are and your potential on the other side of your healing