A TEMPORARILY GROWING GLOBAL ECONOMY, AN INEVITABLE WAR WITH NORTH KOREA & A BITCOIN BUBBLE

Highlights from the interview I watched this morning with two of the world’s best macro-economic and finance minds working today: Keith McCollough of Hedgeye and Jim Rickards.

1. There will be no rate hike in December contrary to consensus.
2. Disinflation will continue. The natural state of the world is deflation.
3. Stocks will continue to go up through the end of the year. The next 3 months are smooth sailing from the perspective of systemic financial risk.
4. 2018 presents a lot of risks geopolitically, and EPS profit slowdown YoY.
5. A War with North Korea is extremely likely. Either we’re going to attack NK preemptively in the next 6 months depending on their second strike Nuclear capabilities, or NK is going to invade South Korea within the next 18 months as a re-animation of the Korean War and NK’s desire for Korean Unification. The allies of the South Korea, which includes the US will then have to step in.
6. Bitcoin is in a bubble. Most of the non-speculative transactions taking place are black market: money laundering, arms dealing, drug dealing. “It’s a Ponzi scheme with nobody in charge.” You can make money in a Bubble you just have to get out in time. The Bitcoin Bulls understand technology but they don’t understand the history of markets and currency. Will you make money during the bubble or be like the masses of retail clients left holding the bag in the Dot Com Crash? (Disclosure — I’ve made significant returns speculating on Bitcoin but I plan to sell when particular catalysts are closer on the horizon).
7. China will experience a major economic slowdown in 2018/2019. They were in a holding pattern until Xi Jinping consolidated power, which just occurred. A China slowdown will have far reaching negative effects on the global economy.

My question for my friends:

Do you understand what’s coming? Are you prepared? Financially, Physically, Emotionally, Mentally, Spiritually?

MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS A GRAND UNIFICATION THEORY OF EVERYTHING

Nice! I just figured out a key missing ontological construct to explain how Time Travel works.

Unifying Spiritual Claims about Simultaneous Time with the intractable problems of forward and backward causality in Physics (the killing your grandfather problem).

It has to do with the conversion process between Energy, Information and Matter as they move between the Gross, Subtle, Causal…(and higher and subtler) realms.

And how to use multi-dimensional Developmental Constraints to enable the Computational Conservatism/Pruning required to support Parallel Universe Hypotheses, reining in the infinite branching problem.

The model (which I created part of 2 years ago) also posits a 10 dimensional space (possibly more) like many variants of String Theory, but unlike most of those models, these higher dimensions actually have Correspondence and Coherence to validated Phenomena in Reality.

What I mean by that is, it is possible to tap into these higher dimensions in your First Person Phenomenological Experience via Meditation. Whereas in String Theory these higher dimensions are just weird Mathematical Abstractions that don’t seem to provide any real explanatory utility beyond the 4th or 5th dimension.

In the model I’m proposing, you get the first 10 dimensions by taking the conventional 4 dimensions in the gross Realm (3D + Time), the same 4 in the Subtle Realm, 1 more in the Causal Realm, and 1 more from a 5th dimensional time folding dimension — 4+4+1+1 = 10.

See, String Theory doesn’t know what to do with all the dimensions their mathematical equations predict beyond the 4th dimension. But the math actually exactly alludes to the model I’m proposing here:

“It’s not so hard to construct higher dimensional worlds using the Einstein equations. But the question is then: WHY BOTHER?
It’s because physicists dream of a unified theory: a single mathematical framework in which all fundamental forces and units of matter can be described together in a manner that is internally consistent and consistent with current and future observation.
And it turns out that having extra dimensions of space makes it possible to build candidates for such a theory.

Extra dimensions in string theory:

Superstring theory is a possible unified theory of all fundamental forces, but superstring theory requires a 10 dimensional spacetime, or else bad quantum states called ghosts with unphysical negative probabilities become part of the spectrum.
Now this creates a problem in d=10 string theory: how to get the d=4 world as we know it out of the theory.”
– ( Patricia Schwarz, PhD Physicist, CalTech, http://www.superstringtheory.com/experm/exper5.html)

This is not a bug, it is a feature! :

“Bad quantum states called ghosts with unphysical negative probabilities become part of the spectrum”.

It is pointing to the existence of the Subtle Realm but which the theoretical physicists can’t see because they don’t have access to the Subtle Realm in their own personal experience and thus no conceptual framework for making sense of this data which is right in front of their noses!

The problem is that they only believe the Gross Realm of Matter exists and have negated all the other Realms of Reality.

I’m more Philosopher & Systems Theorist than Physicist or Mathematician, so I don’t know yet how to translate an Ontological insight (like Einstein’s thought experiment of the speed of light relative to the bullet train) into a mathematical model that can be experimentally validated, but I suspect I can enroll some physicist friends at some point.

Psychographic entry criteria to fully follow the logic behind the model construction yourself: mastery of AQAL integral theory, deep understanding of evolutionary developmental systems theory, an intermediate understanding of theoretical physics and universe as quantum computer, a taste of all-at-once-ness in the post-awakening stabilization stages of meditation, a spiritual lineage with a rigorous soul development model.

So most challengingly the people who can fully comment on my work at the theoretical level I can probably count on one hand.

I may literally be the only person in the world (right now) with sufficient knowledge and training in all 6 of those aforementioned domains. A couple close friends have 4-5.

But many can contribute through mastery in any of the integrated dimensions to point out what insights are not being taken into account or what problems still need to be solved. Or through other paths that I have not travelled that lead to a similar ‘deep structure’ conclusion with a different ‘surface structure’. An example of a path that I am told is able to do this that I have not walked very far down is the indigenous plant medicine path.

And with my ‘alone on the mountaintop analogy’, I am also pointing to the truth that in a legitimate sense we are all, all alone on our own mountaintop.

Nobody has your exact life experiences, your exact karma, your exact genetic code, your exact combination of lineages and methodologies you accumulated through your lifetimes of experience. And from your own unique mountaintop you have the vantage point to glean your own unique perspective on reality.

The key distinction is what is ‘surface structure’ and what is ‘deep structure’…and ‘What Level of Deep Structure can you see’. i.e. From your mountain top do you just see Newtonian Mechanics or can you see General Relativity. Can you see General Relativity before anyone else like Einstein, or can you see it after Einstein showed us all how to climb that mountain? How clearly can you see from that mountain do you just see hazy outlines of truth or can you see the minuté details and mathematically not just metaphorically explain causal relationships?

What is described here is the time-tested process of how theoretical novelty is generated: new multidisciplinary integration is akin to climbing a new unseen mountain, getting to the top and looking out at the horizon and observing what is now blatantly clear from this new vantage point.

Now I’ve just got to find others who want to climb this mountain so we can collaborate and make further sense of what is possible to see from here.

#livebloggingcreativeprocess
#stanforddropoutstillapolymath
#findinggodthroughthemind

CHÖD — CUTTING THROUGH CONFUSION TO THE TRUE NATURE OF THE CULTURE WARS

Enough Content has now been Invoked in the Field of my Facebook feed that people have revealed where they are coming from.

It is time to reveal and explain the Map that can make Order out of this appearing Chaos.

The essential idea of this Map is that all values, Beliefs, Thoughts, Emotions, Cultures, Systems and Institutions emerge out of a particular Field of Consciousness, that oscillates around a phase space like an electron cloud.

This is not a complete map of the Field of Consciousness, but rather a 2 dimensional projection of two of the most fundamental dimensions: Psychological Developmental Stages and State-Stages of Consciousness.

Other hidden variables, from this perspective, include domain specific Developmental Lines, Typological structures like personality, Shadow, and Trans-Incarational and Collective Karma.

On this map you will see 3 Rectangles.

The Red Rectangle represents the field of consciousness where most of my critics reside.

The Green Rectangle represents the field of consciousness where the people I seek to influence reside.

The Black Rectangle represents where those in the Red Rectangle perceive phenomena in the Green Rectangle to reside.

The Black Rectangle is also where most actual Misognysts, Racists and Nazis reside.

The phenomena where those in the Red Rectangle misclassify the Green Rectangle as the Black Rectangle is an instance of what is called the Pre/Trans Fallacy.

There are various properties inherent to the Terrain within the Red Rectangle that work together to create this particular Pre/Trans Fallacy.

One feature is Moral Absolutism. Those in the Red Rectangle don’t believe anything could possibly be more Evolved than their Perspective, so they improperly classify it as less Evolved than their Perspective.

Or in other words, “if you’re not for women’s rights in the way that has been deemed Morally Correct within the Red Rectangle, then you must be a Misogynistic, White Nationalist”.

This is aligned with the Post-Modernist Deconstructionist Project where all Vertical Structures are perceived to be Dominator Hierarchies, which must be collapsed to equal playing fields.

Those in the Red Rectangle will deny the Field of Consciousness exists as depicted by this Map. However, it is also a well studied feature of the Field of Consciousness that those in the Pluralistic Band will reject anything resembling Hierarchy. So arguing with people in the Red Rectangle about whether the Field of Consciousness exists is fruitless, unless they have some access to the Integral Band of Consciousness.

This angers those in the Red Rectangle because by stating that Reality effectively has a Perceptual Permission System, you are violating one of their Fundamental Values that Phenomena should Universally Accessible.

Furthermore, it is a feature of the Field of Consciousness that many people who reside within the Red Rectangle believe it is their mission in life to Deconstruct Hierarchy. So they really won’t like this Map.

However, it is worth noting that Deconstructing Dominator Hierarchies within the Black Rectangle is a worthy cause— the Rational and Mythic Bands of Consciousness.

Unfortunately, Mythic Structures and Integral Structures look the same to those in the Red Rectangle.

As a consequence, those within the Red Rectangle are simultaneously Healing the Past and Preventing the Future.

The Integral Band of Consciousness rejects overdone Deconstructionism and recognizes the Systemic Nature of Reality as Holarchical, rather than Hierarchical.

Holoarchy is a series of nested Holons. Holons are constructs that are simultaneously Parts and Wholes. So when we say Reality is Holarchical, we mean it is made up of Systems within Systems within Systems…

To accurately determine where one resides in the Field of Consciousness requires learning Integral Epistemology and Methodological Pluralism.

Therefore, if you are within the Red Rectangle you will be unable to employ methodology that is capable of correctly classifying people without committing Pre/Trans Fallacies.

Those in the Green Rectangle may or may not possess adequate methods of classifying people and phenomena within the Field of Consciousness, but precise accuracy requires considerable skill, attunement and error correction methodologies. Nonetheless, low-precision intuitive classification is reliable and valuable.

I hope this is illuminating to those of you in the Green Rectangle.

To those of you in the Red Rectangle…

I hope you will turn your energies to Deconstructing Hierarchies that are actually in the Black Rectangle and stop wasting your Precious Energy on me.

How The Establishment Manipulates Society

The intricate web that holds the Establishment together is strong and deep.

1. Big Pharma Makes Billions of Dollars Selling Drugs.

2. They then BUY Political Candidates that support their interests.

3. Political candidates pass laws that make doctors OVER-PRESCRIBE drugs like anti-depressants.

4.People take anti-depressants that harmfully changes their biochemistry so that they feel a little better, but are simultaneously ADDICTED to Big Pharma’s drugs because they’re so hard to get off of.

5. Rather than using DEPRESSION as A SIGN SOMETHING IS OFF in their life and needs to be changed, Big Pharma’s drugs sap the emotional energy needed to FIGHT AGAINST the problems in their life that are making them sick.

6. Citizens become DOCILE and accept the status quo enabling other Billion Dollar EXPLOITATIVE Industries like Big Oil, Wall Street, BIG AGRICULTURE to further run rampant over Citizens’ self interests.

To paraphrase and add onto a thought from my friend Zak Stein, a Harvard trained developmental psychologist: The Psychopharmacology industry is part of a COMPOUNDING META-CRISIS at the global level. It is an actual PHYSICAL INTERVENTION into the central nervous system that is altering millions of Americans fundamental conscious experience of daily life. And that is DECIMATING the life prospects of up and coming generations. There’s an urgency to fix this problem for the sake of the dignity of human society.

Now quoting a famous speech from the movie The Network,

“I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell,’I’M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!’”

…And then Support Bernie Sanders For President.

Because him winning the democratic nomination would be an amazing leverage point for a host of almost intractable, systemic, parasitic problems with the status quo of THE ESTABLISHMENT.

Max Marmer's photo.

Why the Models Probably Underestimate Bernie Sanders chance of Winning the Democratic Nomination

Predict Wise gives Bernie Sanders an 18% of chance of winning the Democratic Nomination.

Without studying the model, I think that is a grave underestimate.

I would give Bernie Sanders an intuitive Bayesian Prior of 65% of winning the Democratic Nomination right now.

Whether I move that number up or down depends on the unfolding skillful means of his campaign team.

Bernie Sanders has struck an incredibly powerful chord. A movement is brewing that will accrue exponential momentum that these models aren’t forecasting.

I think my facebook feed is a powerful early adopter signal and it is overwhelmingly pro-Bernie. And Bernie will Successfully Cross Geoffrey Moore’s Chasm.

Here are 5 big presumptive flaws in the current prediction model that puts Bernie at 18%, but will eventually tip the scales in his favor:

1. The Apathetic, Disenfranchised Millennial

Most pollsters expect this demographic to not come out to vote because they haven’t come out in the past. But they haven’t come out in the past because they believe the system is fundamentally broken. And the system is fundamentally broken, but now there’s finally a candidate who represents the viewpoint that system is fundamentally broken. So Bernie Sanders is activating a huge well of energy that was considered off the map. I see him tapping into the same energy of Hope and Change that Obama tapped into but was unable to fully deliver on, in part because he was too much of diplomat and not enough of a fighter. Bernie actually has the character disposition, track record and values to pick up where Obama left off.

He is tapping into an authentic moral developmental sequence of the universe. For those who know Integral Spiral Dynamics, he is the first full spectrum Green candidate, unlike Obama and Hillary who are Orange/Green. [Orange and Green roughly stand for Modernism and Post-Modernism] .

2. The Socialized Mind

There have been a plethora of tropes about Bernie Sanders not being capable of winning. Now that results have come in Iowa, he undeniably has to be taken seriously. He will likely win New Hampshire because it’s near his home state and then he will have a ton of momentum.

The Majority of American voters are in the psychological stage of development that Harvard Developmental Psychologists Robert Kegan would call the Socialized Mind. Essentially this means people primarily make decisions based on what their social circle is doing rather than really critically thinking for themselves.

When a population is made up primarily of people who are Socialized Minds, that population is incredibly susceptible to momentum.

3. The Socialized Mind Momentum Swing will Trigger a Bernie Sanders Fundraising Tidal Swell

We already saw the legitimizing effect the Iowa Caucus had on Sanders’ fundraising efforts yesterday: he raised 3 Million dollars in one day — his biggest day ever.http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/267999-sanders-raised-3m-in-24-hours-his-biggest-single-day-yet

I expect his fundraising success to continue to in a positive feedback loop:
Appears more credible -> Raises more money -> Runs a more effective campaign -> Gets Results -> Appears more credible

4. Mainstream Media Indicators vs. Social Media indicators

The mainstream media has ignored Bernie. Yet Bernie has succeeded anyway. Mainstream media influences linearly and static-ly. The models and pundits underestimate the viral, interactive nature of social media.

5. Winning the Black Vote

The models say he struggles with this demographic. But that’s probably because he looks like a white grumpy grandpa who is easily dismissed on first impression. And Clinton has long time name recognition with Southern born Bill Clinton serving them well.

All the aforementioned factors will force Bernie to be seriously considered rather than dismissed on first impression.

Black leaders like Cornell West saying Bernie Sanders stands on the legacy of Martin Luther King will tip the scales in his favor.

I must admit — 3 years ago I posted I thought Hillary Clinton had probably better than 80% chance of being the next President of the United States.(https://www.facebook.com/maxhmarmer/posts/4410505574849)

I did not see Bernie coming.

But I’m very glad The Bern has arrived.

In Favor of Non-Local Consciousness

If the Universe-as-a-Simulation Hypothesis is correct…or the very least where we are somewhere not near the beginning of a chain of intelligent civilizations then the theory that some part of Consciousness does not wholly reside in the brain but rather comes through us like a radio receiver is also probably correct…because the same thing is now happening in our current technology landscape where data and processing increasingly live in the cloud and are downloaded onto the hardware on an as needed, just in time basis.

This follows because the universe shows the pattern of self-similarity all the way up and all the way down (the most popular example of this being Fractals). So the developmental design patterns we converge on as optimal for guiding our technological evolution are very likely the same design patterns present in the evolution of consciousness and humanity.

Having said all that I’m not sure I’ve found anyone’s writing who I believe as the optimal balance between information processing of Consciousness “in-the-cloud” vs. “on-the device”. Almost everyone I’ve read are on the extremes of the path.

Like the liberation of the Buddha-Mind, I prefer the middle path.

Death, Destruction and the Systemic Viewpoint

“I would have written a shorter letter, but I only had [80 minutes]” – Blaise Pascal

My Facebook feed today is overrun with messages of loss, grief, and hope for the recovery and renewal of Harbin Springs in the wake of the Lake County fire that rapidly and unexpectedly destroyed its physical manifestation.

I have only been to Harbin once in January 2015, and feel fortunate I was to get a brief taste of its magical energy before its current incarnation passed yesterday from this world.

Due to my limited personal experience with Harbin I don’t have much to say in terms of what it meant to me, but as I awoke from my evening power nap, I realized I have some thoughts I would like to share on Loss, Relationship (with people or places), Recovery and Restorative Responsibility.

In processing loss some of the most important questions we can ask are:

What was good, true, and beautiful about this experience?
What can learn from this experience which is now over?
What do we want to take with us? What do we want to let go of?
How can we best honor this experience, letting it indelibly permeate our being?

Then some of the most important questions are about responsibility, first in the past up to the present.

In the ending of this experience what was due chance? What was mine? What was theirs? What was projection? What was innate structural misalignment? Was there anything I could have done differently to have reached a different outcome? Would any of those other outcomes have been better for me or for them?

Then feeling into the future, potent questions to ask yourself are:

Given what I’ve now processed about the past and present, what do I want for the future?
And given what I’ve now processed about the past and present how will my plans, actions and energy be different now going forward, so that I learn from my mistakes, trials and challenges rather than repeat them?
Am I ready to let some part of me die so that I may become a person capable of holding this bigger future?
Am I ready to give up being a victim, give up being powerless, give up being right, give up being small and do my very best to take the vision of my best future self into my own hands, and commit to stepping into that version of myself, right now and always…developing the meta-cognitive awareness to recognize when I’m out alignment and coming back to my higher self, continuously, faster and faster…. just like the breath in concentration meditative practice?

There are some right answers to these questions and some wrong ones. Some things are objectively true, and something are objectively not. But most of the potent territory lies in the realm of the subjective, and in the union of multiple subjective experiences into a dynamic intersubjective.

There are no wrong answers in the subjective realm. Nobody can invalidate your subjective truth. There are no facts here either. Only your story. Only your interpretation of what happened. And interpretations can change. Through personal reflection. Through wise reflection from friends. Through truly hearing another person and seeing what happened through their eyes and their perspective. And there is no time limit to updating our interpretation of our lives. They can happen anytime and in an instant.

Over the years, I have found myself leading many friends through various forms of Relationship transitions, and while these questions are more related to human to human relationships, they are still quite relevant to our relationships to spiritual refuges like Harbin Hot Springs.

So what is my essential interpretation of what happened in my community’s tragic *break up* with Harbin Hot Springs?

Much of what needs to be said is already being said by the community, beautifully, poetically, and with ripped open hearts. So with my global systematic strategic orientation, this is what I feel most called to add the conversation:

I believe the destruction of Harbin Hot Springs is a tragedy that did not need to happen. It was always probabilistically possible for Harbin to physically die in a fire. But its chances of occurring have been drastically and significantly increased by Global Warming and the increase of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere.

Professor George Lakoff said Global Warming systemically caused Hurricane Sandy. And by extension it is relatively easy to claim that Global Warming systematically caused the destruction of Harbin Hot Springs.

Global Warming dramatically increases the probability and frequency of Extreme Weather events like massive fires, massive droughts and massive hurricanes.

So when you feel the pain of Harbin Hot Springs, feel into the pain of what was lost. But then feel fully into what it represents.

Perhaps the biggest lesson in Harbin’s death is right there in its name.

It is a HARBINGER.

A HARBINger of what’s to come if humanity does not step in take responsibility for how our global energy system since the Dawn of the Industrial Revolution has externalized harm to the environment, and now threatens so much of what we hold dear and love about this beautiful world.

Let the pain of the loss of Harbin wash over you and then feel into the potential loss of hundreds of places like Harbin all over the world, with hundreds of millions of people losing their homes, and their livelihoods.

The pain and suffering you feel in the loss of Harbin will be amplified 100 fold if we do not transition to a fully Renewable Global Energy System and safely Geoengineer the planet back down to Pre-Industrialized levels of Greenhouse Gases.

Then let that pain be your fuel, your motivation to prevent this suffering from occurring in the future.

Commit to building a sustainable world where tragedies like this do not become a regular occurrence.

I wish I had an organization or a metastrategic plan of action to direct people to who could use the pain of this tragedy to contribute to successful systemic remediation of Global Warming.

Unfortunately I have not seen any person, plan or organization adequate to the the complexity and immensity of the task.

An adequate plan requires a deep understanding of theory and praxis of at least:
– Integral systematic thinking
– The developmental nature of consciousness and and the differing motivational drives at each level,
– Political and economic power
– The cutting edge of Atmospheric Science
– Geoengineering
– Exponential technological progress and what new technology tools we will have available in the next 50 years
-An executive team worthy of Bill Torbert’s Ironist Leadership stage, capable of directing a massive human movement without self-destructing in ego or simple ineffectiveness.

The solution probably requires at least:
– A global cap and trade system
– A global political governing body capable of reigning India and China
– The removal of oil subsidies
– Properly priced externalities
– Use of cutting edge biotechnology and nanotechnology to drop greenhouse gases down 350 parts per million

“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”.
– Paul Romer

Unfortunately, my soul says Global Warming is not my War to be a leading General in for at least 5-10 years, as I am entrenched in a different war, for now. But I am here to provide guidance to friends whose war it is.

So in the coming days as you are processing the loss of Harbin, feel into the wise words of my friend Marc Gafni:

“We live in a world of outrageous pain. The only response to outrageous pain is outrageous love.”

And not just any love. A love that is so big it is capable of actually preventing immense potential future suffering of this beautiful world and all of its beautiful inhabitants.

A love so deep, and so strong it calls you into a version of yourself you never knew was possible. A love that calls you into a version of yourself so big, you become the type of person who is capable of turning the massive tides of Global Warming and preventing the pain and suffering of the loss of millions of Harbin Hot Springs.

Best wishes to you on your healing journey.

May the darkness reveal the true power of our collective love and light.