A temporarily growing global economy, an inevitable war with North Korea & a Bitcoin bubble

Highlights from the interview I watched this morning with two of the world’s best macro-economic and finance minds working today: Keith McCollough of Hedgeye and Jim Rickards.

1. There will be no rate hike in December contrary to consensus.
2. Disinflation will continue. The natural state of the world is deflation.
3. Stocks will continue to go up through the end of the year. The next 3 months are smooth sailing from the perspective of systemic financial risk.
4. 2018 presents a lot of risks geopolitically, and EPS profit slowdown YoY.
5. A War with North Korea is extremely likely. Either we’re going to attack NK preemptively in the next 6 months depending on their second strike Nuclear capabilities, or NK is going to invade South Korea within the next 18 months as a re-animation of the Korean War and NK’s desire for Korean Unification. The allies of the South Korea, which includes the US will then have to step in.
6. Bitcoin is in a bubble. Most of the non-speculative transactions taking place are black market: money laundering, arms dealing, drug dealing. “It’s a Ponzi scheme with nobody in charge.” You can make money in a Bubble you just have to get out in time. The Bitcoin Bulls understand technology but they don’t understand the history of markets and currency. Will you make money during the bubble or be like the masses of retail clients left holding the bag in the Dot Com Crash? (Disclosure — I’ve made significant returns speculating on Bitcoin but I plan to sell when particular catalysts are closer on the horizon).
7. China will experience a major economic slowdown in 2018/2019. They were in a holding pattern until Xi Jinping consolidated power, which just occurred. A China slowdown will have far reaching negative effects on the global economy.

My question for my friends:

Do you understand what’s coming? Are you prepared? Financially, Physically, Emotionally, Mentally, Spiritually?

Also published on Medium.

  • abhay pattnaik

    FIAT CURRENCY and Oceans of Money is orchestrated by Luciferians to create the biggest bubble ever seen on this globe simultaneously cryptocurrency fraudsters are fostering another bubble to vanish within nano seconds, environmental sustainability bubble based on SMART IOT integrating Energy smart Grid, Driver less Transport logistics and the biggest Neural network destroying all boundaries of deception virtually under the control of largest monopolies orchestrated by the same 5 people who hold 50% of world GDP.

    The number of millionaires in the world rose by nearly 8 percent last year to an all-time high of around 16.5 million people, with record total wealth of $63.5 trillion, according to a report by global consultancy firm Capgemini.

    Global Financial Assets (including stocks and bonds) are worth $250 trillion and amount to 330% of Global GDP, up from$12tn and just 110% in 1980. The oceans of money in financial markets is now so large, its possible that ripples on its surface could trigger the next big down turn. Before WWII there were 78 recessions going back 140 years from today in past economic data out of which major 19 followed a bubble in stocks n housing.

    Japan crashed long ago in 1990 same year Asian crisis spiralled due to contagion, again it affected ASEAN economic crisis in 1997 followed successively again by dot com crash of 2000-01. This was again repeated in 2008 global financial meltdown led by Lehman‘s subprime mortgage crisis. The present bubble is larger than quadrillion dollars in US capital and derivative markets and China’s $28 trillion debt balloon.

    Asset price inflation can’t be ignored anymore, markets are rising faster than real economy – this is the real scam by banister’s and central banker and governments based on FIAT currency and Quantitative easing. Economists like you always churn out manipulated statistics to deceive the common masses. Longest and deepest recessions tend to follow real estate busts all the time historically evidenced. Now consumer price inflation is very low n the long run upward movements in prices of house, stocks, and bonds the rich 1% owns it all, are rising the fastest share of these assets creating ever bigger monopolies and inequity. Seeds of recession is sown very deeply embedded in every economy. Oceans of easy money, flows only to the top 5 elites now who control more than 50% of world GDP. Only after the bubble bursts and instability manifests globally wiping out all kinds savings in asset classes, the central bankers and policy makers huddle up to again foster a new bubble greater than the last. Easy Money has been cornered but FIAT currency has absolutely no value. Truth is the economic system is designed for deception.
    Derivatives neither create nor destroy net wealth; they are economically neutral. At most, derivatives may move the same money from one player to another. But the economy sees no net increase, even if one player wins a derivatives bet. Likewise, the economy sees no net decrease, even if one player loses a derivatives bet.
    The derivative players can gain or lose money based on the performance of their derivative bets (typically just insurance contracts written outside of insurance industry rules), but whatever one player gains comes at the expense of another player.
    Thus, derivatives are not only economically neutral to the aggregate system, but are also Zero Sum.
    By definition, economically neutral, zero sum financial instruments cannot cause an economic collapse.
    And it is for that reason that the notional values of derivative contracts can be so astronomical ($700 Trillion!)…because they cancel out.
    Derivatives are a non-issue. They might tank one company, but they will enrich another to that same degree. they are not zero sum if the public has to pay the counterparty upon failure.
    How is it good “public policy” if the instrument “tanks” one company but enriches another without competition in the real marketplace. ?
    they are not zero sum if the public has to pay the counterparty upon failure.
    How is it good “public policy” if the instrument “tanks” one company but enriches another without competition in the real marketplace. ?