A temporarily growing global economy, an inevitable war with North Korea & a Bitcoin bubble

Highlights from the interview I watched this morning with two of the world’s best macro-economic and finance minds working today: Keith McCollough of Hedgeye and Jim Rickards.

1. There will be no rate hike in December contrary to consensus.
2. Disinflation will continue. The natural state of the world is deflation.
3. Stocks will continue to go up through the end of the year. The next 3 months are smooth sailing from the perspective of systemic financial risk.
4. 2018 presents a lot of risks geopolitically, and EPS profit slowdown YoY.
5. A War with North Korea is extremely likely. Either we’re going to attack NK preemptively in the next 6 months depending on their second strike Nuclear capabilities, or NK is going to invade South Korea within the next 18 months as a re-animation of the Korean War and NK’s desire for Korean Unification. The allies of the South Korea, which includes the US will then have to step in.
6. Bitcoin is in a bubble. Most of the non-speculative transactions taking place are black market: money laundering, arms dealing, drug dealing. “It’s a Ponzi scheme with nobody in charge.” You can make money in a Bubble you just have to get out in time. The Bitcoin Bulls understand technology but they don’t understand the history of markets and currency. Will you make money during the bubble or be like the masses of retail clients left holding the bag in the Dot Com Crash? (Disclosure — I’ve made significant returns speculating on Bitcoin but I plan to sell when particular catalysts are closer on the horizon).
7. China will experience a major economic slowdown in 2018/2019. They were in a holding pattern until Xi Jinping consolidated power, which just occurred. A China slowdown will have far reaching negative effects on the global economy.

My question for my friends:

Do you understand what’s coming? Are you prepared? Financially, Physically, Emotionally, Mentally, Spiritually?


Also published on Medium.