‘You can’t time markets’ is simply an excuse that people who aren’t good at it make. God Bless them and their whining. We need them on the other side of the trade. – Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye

An Update

I’ve been working 12-14 hours a day since the start of the new year with no days off to get my new company TrueSelf off the ground.

All that despite a rough common cold I picked up from the New Years all-nighter.

I just draw on Michael Jordan’s infamous flu game for inspiration.

We’re getting very close to releasing a lot of work that’s been in the pipeline.

An Online Class entitled the Personality Advantage System: Introductory Course will be coming out next week.

Essentially, it is an introduction to the 9 Types of the Enneagram.

My co-founders Katherine Fauvre and Nick Connor will be doing a Live Q&A about the Intro Course on Tuesday at 2pm live on FB, as well as on Zoom.

Our free personality test is also almost done, which will assess your Primary Enneagram Type, Tritype and Instinctual stacking, with far more accuracy than any other Enneagram test ever made.

A lot of love, blood, sweat and tears has gone into this over the last few months — and the many decades of work members of our team have put in that lead up to this.

Master Classes, Brand Identity, Coaching Programs, and full-featured web applications coming soon after.

Stay tuned.

Why Becoming Great at Dancing is an Ultimate Entrepreneurial Resource

As Tony Robbins preaches, the reason you fail at achieving your goals is never about not having enough resources.

You didn’t fail because you didn’t have enough money, enough time, or the right contacts.

“Resources are never the problem, the reason for failure is a lack of resourcefulness”.

And what does he say the ultimate resources are:

Emotional states.

And what determines your Emotional State?

In large part, your Physical State.

“Motion creates emotion”.

Slumped shoulders = depression and lethargy.

Straight spine, shoulders rolled back = confidence.

So what is one of the best ways to get in a peak physical and emotional state?

Put some music on and dance.

Become great at dancing whatever emotions want to move through you.

Banish self-consciousness. Banish doubt. Banish fear.

Through your dancing.

And you’ll have the Ultimate Resource in no time.

My Current Cryptocurrency & Economic Forecast

I expect the crypto-market to follow a trajectory similar to the Internet Bubble.

Attached is 36 year graph of the NASDAQ.

Crypto will dramatically change the world not just through hype and speculation, but through its revolutionary applications.

But it will take 5-10 years of hard won engineering and trial & error.

Prices will get ahead of value and there will be a rapid run-up and rapid decline.

It many ways the Crypto-Market is Internet 2.0.

Crypto is reimagining the web with a new secure protocol that enables many new decentralized applications.

I expect us to hit the peak in about 2 years with a total market cap 1.5x to 2x bigger than the internet bubble due to inflation, the accelerant of social media and that the world’s global economic infrastructure is 20 years more mature.

This gives a Peak Crypto Total Market Cap Price Target of 10-15 Trillion.

We are currently hovering close to 800 Billion in Market cap.

I think Bitcoin will fall as the #1 most valuable cryptocurrency within the next year to Ripple, Ethereum, Cardano, EOS or IOTA.

Personally I’ve got a fairly diversified portfolio of about 40-50 alt coins. That’s around the number that is recommended for proper diversification for angel investments in startups, which is what all these alt coins effectively are — early stage tech products/companies.

I pick alt-coins using the criteria of an angel investor (market opportunity, team, vision, traction, competition, status quo…with the additional factor of public receptivity due to the hype factor being such a large determinant of returns).

I swing trade a little bit and take profits off the runners and invest it into smaller alt-coins. I added to my cost basis to have around a 10% total portfolio allocation. This portfolio has run up 200-300% in just the last 6 weeks and so is already a much higher total portfolio allocation. I keep the other 90% in a diversified stock portfolio that are mostly options for leverage. I will probably let the crypto portfolio ride to the peak and try to get out somewhere within 20% of the top, rather than rebalancing the crypto portfolio.

I even arbitraged off some new 0% credit cards and a small amount at 20% interest just for fun to see if I could beat the rate — I have.

What’s scary for the whole global financial system is that there are many reports of people taking out a 2nd mortgage on their house to buy Bitcoin. So the crypto bubble bursting will likely be one significant catalyst for the next Global Financial Crisis, especially as the fall from its peak lines up well with timelines for the next recession which will likely become a depression due to all the accelerating negative feedback loops to the downside: The Current Tax Reform Bill being an excessive stimulant in the late stages of a bull market cycle, excessive government debt around the world, Geo-political instability, and stretched stock-market valuations.

When this happens I hope to be sitting pretty with a shiny bag of put options shorting the market.

For now, I’m enjoying riding the euphoria.

The future portends to be highly volatile, my friends.

Stay alert. Stay ready. Be dynamic.

What are your forecasts for the crypto-market compared to my own? And how are you personally positioning your finances?

Books I Read in 2017 // Do You Have Recommendations for 2018?

As 2017 comes to a close I was taking inventory of the books I’ve read this year.

All of the ones I read were pretty great and I would highly recommended them.

What are some of your favorite books that you read this year?

—-

1) Unbeatable Mind: Forge Resiliency and Mental Toughness to Succeed at an Elite Level by Mark Divine (H/T to @Daniel Schmachtenberger for the recommendation)

2) The Precious Treasury of Pith Instructions (The Seven Treasuries Series) by Longchen Rabjam (A core text in the Buddhist Dzogchen lineage)

3) The Dark Challenge by Nick Scott Ram (A lord of the rings style allegory of the battle between light and dark in the universe. Fiction that is much closer to reality than you might think.)

4) The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, Mind, and Body in the Healing of Trauma by Bessel van der Kolk M.D.

5) The Everything and the Nothing by Meher Baba

6) The Divided Mind by John E. Sarno

7) Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis by J.D. Vance

8) The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future by Kevin Kelly

9) The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis by Jim Rickards

10) Answers by Mother Meera

11) Trump and a Post-Truth World by Ken Wilber

12) The Accelerating TechnOnomic Medium (ATOM) by Kartik Gada

My Hypothesis on Future Bitcoin Price Action

Cryptocurrencies represent legitimate disruptive technology. However they’re currently in a speculative bubble since the real transaction volume across the network isn’t that high, and most people are buying it for speculative purposes rather than functional purposes.

Bubbles do not die of old age and it’s possible to make a lot of money if one can get out in time.

So the key thing to look for is negative catalysts in bitcoin price in particular.

I think the main negative catalysts are another cryptocurrency overtaking bitcoin in speculative hype and when the market gets mature enough that you have a motivated group of Crypto-Bears with the technical tools to make a lot of money on the short side — either through shorting the new CME futures contracts or when a mainstream option chain is rolled out.

After motivated short sellers win their first battle that dip will be voraciously bought. But the 2nd and 3rd time they seize the momentum a panic may ensue, as there will be many new retail investors in the cryptospace who bought for purely speculative reasons who are now losing significant amounts of money. Other new-ish uneducated crypto investors may exit too — really anyone who invested for speculative purposes who does not understand the fundamental technology.

Overall I expect cryptocurrencies to follow the Gartner Hype Cycle:

And currently we are maybe 60-70% up the peak.

We will get fully up the peak when all the institutional and retail money can easily participate via futures contracts and ETFs.

One friend commented that Bitcoin has already been thru multiple Hype Cycles of which I would add:

That the Gartner Hype Cycle is fractal and applies to each segment in the life cycle adoption curve.

So the Bitcoin Innovators and Early Adopters experienced the Hype and Disillusionment, but the new Early Majority coming into the market since May of 2017 haven’t gone through that cycle yet and I suspect they will, due to a short selling dynamic like I described above.

I’m curious what other people’s thoughts on this thesis are who are following the day to day cryptomarket and cryptonews much closer than I am.